IGNITION WEST: Future of Mobile article constains an interesting slide set that puts together a deck on the current trends in mobile. The slide set by BI Intelligence service looks closely at the growth of smartphones and tablets, the platform wars, and how consumers are actually using their devices.
Android will be the OS of the future because it is implemented by more and more hardware makers! But Apple has done an impressive job of hanging in there. And, thus far, developers have not rallied around Android in the same way as iOS.
According to this production the number of PCs does not seem to be decreasing in the future. The growth of PCs seems to continue to grow at current rate. In addition to this are the bigger growth in mobile and tablets. Post-PC revolution seems to be so that PCs don’t go away, just a larger number of new smart devices are taken into everyday use.
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Tomi Engdahl says:
Pc-product sales to grow five percent this year, predicts market research firm IDC. The segment is driven by a flat-screen computers and ultra-thin notebooks.
Market research firm Gartner predicts that 103 million are sold in flat-screen computer and the Apple accounts for two-thirds. The company predicts flat-screen computer sales to grow 326 million in 2015.
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said Windows 7 on the all-time best-selling single system. Microsoft expects to sell 350 million Windows 7 operating system based devices on this year.
Source:
http://www.digitoday.fi/bisnes/2012/05/22/ballmer-lupaa-myyda-350-miljoonaa-win7-laitetta/201229822/66?rss=6
Tomi Engdahl says:
Summer 2012 preview: tablets, tablets, and more tablets
http://www2.electronicproducts.com/Summer_2012_preview_tablets_tablets_and_more_tablets-article-fajb_summer2012_tablets_may2012-html.aspx
The upcoming months will see plenty of new tablets introduced to the market
It seems like every electronics company nowadays makes its own tablet. Apple, Microsoft, Samsung . . . the list goes on and on.
With so many names out there, the rumor mill is churning at high speed now, as it is anticipated that the market is about to be flooded with several new and updated tablets over the coming months.
To make sense of all the hearsay (and no doubt put myself in a position of being wrong on more than one of the following stories I’m about to present), here’s a preview of everything that’s expected to take place over the summer.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Apple’s Cook right about PC-tablet fusion fantasy
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-57444144-92/apples-cook-right-about-pc-tablet-fusion-fantasy/
Apple’s chief executive expounds: A tablet and a PC is not a marriage made in heaven.
Let’s begin with what Cook said.
“In my view, the tablet and the PC are different. You can do things with a tablet if you aren’t encumbered by the legacy of a PC — if you view it as different. If you say this is another PC, all of a sudden you’re pulling all of the leadweight of the PC market and you wind up with something not as good.”
Cook Continues.
“Trying to do all those things that the OS of the PC does, and perhaps should do, it’s trying to converge laptops and tablets and therefore you’ve got a clamshell kind of thing and you’re lugging this thing with you, and so the industrial design is not optimized for tablet. People want tablets to be incredibly thin.”
He’s right. A shotgun marriage between a PC and a tablet isn’t going to produce an eminently elegant device along the lines of an iPad–or even a Motorola Xyboard or Samsung Galaxy Tab.
Tomi Engdahl says:
D10: Oracle’s Ellison on cloud computing, sailing and more
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/technologybrierdudleysblog/2018321185_d10_oracles_ellison_on_cloud_c.html
The personal computer became a complex device that people used to access the complex network that is the Internet.
Ellison recounted how the direction things were heading was obvious to him. He came up with the concept of a “network computer” or simple terminal connected to the Internet 20 years ago.
The network computer vision is becoming a reality as consumers are increasingly using simple devices such as smartphones and tablets to connect to the Internet, he said. (Although today’s phones and tablets are as powerful and technicially complex as PCs were a decade ago …).
“It’s taken a long, long time for the technologies to mature, the software and hardware technologies to mature, to where the Internet has become just that – enormously complex on one side but on the consumer side, very simple,” he said.
“We migrated the complexity off the desktop, away from the PC and moved that complexity into Internet servers,” he continued.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Microsoft Recruits Designers in Race for Windows Apps
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/microsoft-recruits-designers-in-race-for-windows-apps.html
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is so eager to have a panoply of applications for the next version of its Windows operating system that it has lined up design firms, recruited interns and sent engineers on an around-the-world road show to help developers get them built.
Unlike Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Google Inc. (GOOG), which run the world’s largest app stores, Microsoft doesn’t have the luxury of waiting for programmers to come knocking when they want to create downloadable games, productivity tools or online magazines for its computer software.
Enlarge image Microsoft Windows 8 Seen Tapping $58 Billion App Market
As Microsoft struggles to keep up with a technology landscape that is moving beyond personal computers into a future defined by mobile devices, the company is under pressure to gain a toehold in tablets. Demand for these handheld machines is driven by apps, which Gartner Inc. predicts will generate $58 billion in sales in 2014.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Networking company Cisco to predict Internet traffic more than quadruple by the year 2016.
By 2016, the world is projected to have nearly 18.9 billion online devices (an average of 2.5 for each device the world per capita). Corresponding to the number of devices in 2011 was 10.9 billion.
By 2016, Internet users will be 3.4 billion, which is about 45 percent of the world’s estimated population.
- In 2011, PC-devices produced 94 percent of consumers use the Internet. Percentage drops to 81 percent in 2016. This just shows what a great impact on mobile and portable devices in consumer and business Internet use
Source: http://www.tietoviikko.fi/kaikki_uutiset/tietoverkkoyhtio+ennustaa+nettiliikenne+nelinkertaistuu+lahivuosina/a812969?s=r&wtm=tietoviikko/-01062012&
Tomi Engdahl says:
Post-PC era means mass extinction for personal computer OEMs
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/post-pc-era-means-mass-extinction-for-personal-computer-oems/20514
Summary: HP is laying off more than 27,000 employees and Dell’s Q1 2012 earnings were weak across the board. What does this mean for the future of Personal Computer OEMs?
Just over eight months ago, my colleague Zack Whittaker and I were were both standing on our virtual podiums debating whether “Post-PC” was actually real or if it was bunk.
Eight months later, two giant PC manufacturers are in dire straits — Hewlett-Packard recently announced laying off over 27,000 employees and Dell’s Q1 2012 earnings have been weak across the board in their Consumer, Public Sector and Enterprise divisions.
Apple, on the other hand, is doing magnificently, with their products accounting for over 22.5 percent of mobile PC shipments globally in the first quarter of 2012, 80 percent of that being their own Post-PC iPad tablet, with 17 million mobile PC units shipped, according to NPD Displaysearch.
The hard truth is facing us — traditional PC purchases are slowing down dramatically. Unless you are cultivating a strong business in tablet computers and smartphones as well it’s going to be a very uncomfortable ride in the next few years for the PC manufacturers.
And dare I say it, a number of them are going to go extinct.
So what exactly is Post-PC, anyway? Is it simply just a buzzword, or is it a legitimate phenomenon?
To put it bluntly, the Post-PC world represents a displacement of computing from the traditional, 30 year-old Intel architecture used on desktop to the Datacenter and the Cloud.
In essence, we are returning to a very similar highly centralized model that was popular in the late 60’s and mid-1970’s with mainframe-based computing.
The only difference is that instead of a monolithic, purely mainframe-based time sharing model, our new centralized architecture is multi-vendor and heterogeneous, can be distributed within Public and Private Cloud infrastructure in multiple datacenters and is more business resilient and more flexible than ever before.
As soon as three to five years from now, the average business professional will be transitioning from “Heavy” clients such as desktop PCs and business laptops with large amounts of localized storage and localized applications using Intel chips and Windows to very small and extremely power efficient, SoC-based systems using completely solid state storage (SSD) which will function mostly as cache for applications that run remotely.
I see a mix of both ARM and Intel’s next-generation Systems on a Chip (SoC) using sub-22 nanometer manufacturing processes fulfilling this role, with the predominance of the market being addressed by ARM-based devices as we move further into the future and backwards compatibility no longer becomes as pressing an issue.
Mark_Bennett says:
In the upcoming months, with the introduction of new tablets and laptops, there will be a great need among people to have good high speed internet connection. So many of the broadband providers will have to pull up their socks to make sure that they give high speed internet service at reasonable rate.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Google expects 10bn mobile subscriptions by 2020
http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=474227
Google’s U.K. director Peter Fitzgerald on Tuesday predicted that global mobile subscriptions will grow to 10 billion by 2020 from 5 billion today.
Internet giant also predicts number of end users accessing Web via PCs to grow to 5 billion over next eight years.
“Most of the world has not seen of or even heard of the Internet, we’re still really in the early stages,”
“The ultimate goal is to have Internet connectivity wherever you are in the world,” he continued. “What we’re trying to do is spur this connectivity.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Tablets to drive telemedicine market growth to more than 300% by 2018
http://www.edn.com/electronics-news/4375095/Tablets-to-drive-telemedicine-medical-market-growth-to-more-than-300–by-2018?cid=Newsletter+-+EDN+on+Analog
Telemedicine systems provide a way to improve clinical care delivery to patients with chronic disease, decreasing hospitalizations and visits to the emergency room.
A telemedicine market research report from Wintergreen Research explores how telemedicine device and software companies will capitalize on the revenue streams that will come from services delivery. Just as cell phones are paid for in conjunction with the services contracts, so also the telemedicine applications will be paid by insurance.
Tablets like Apple’s iPad are poised to change telemedicine. Telemedicine-dedicated device and software markets at $736 million in 2011 are anticipated to reach $2.5 billion by 2018.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Plasma Active – a New Approach to Tablet Computing
http://www.linuxjournal.com/content/plasma-active-new-approach-tablet-computing
Why would you spend a few hundred dollars on a device that is little more than a smartphone (with a bigger screen, without the phone)?
Despite the success of Apple’s iPad, that is a question that seems to have defeated most hardware and software vendors.
Even the iPad, an acknowledged success, is little more than an oversize iPhone. Its “wall of apps” approach has been largely copied by the Android-based tablets so far appearing on the market.
The tablet sitting in your hand (or unused in one of your drawers) is a real computer. Can it do more than browse the Web and play videos? Marco Martin, well-known KDE hacker and basysKom employee, thinks so: “the fact that people download and use thousands of apps shows that there is the desire to do something more”. He dislikes the way “most mobile applications feel quite disconnected with each other”. Marco believes this is where KDE’s new user interface and application set for touchscreen devices, Plasma Active, can shine.
Tomi Engdahl says:
The Great Replacement: Microsoft, Yammer, and a New World in Enterprise Computing
http://pandodaily.com/2012/06/16/the-great-replacement-microsoft-yammer-and-a-new-world-in-enterprise-computing/
As with Facebook’s Instagram acquisition, Microsoft’s reported $1.2 billion purchase price for business-software company Yammer likely doesn’t really reflect what the startup is worth in earning potential. Rather it’s an indication of how much the buying company is willing to pay to keep it out of competitors’ hands, acquire the talent on the team, and neutralize a potential threat to its business.
Also like the Instagram acquisition, which confirmed the transition from Web 2.0 to the Age of Mobile, it’s part of a momentous paradigm shift. It signals the end of an old world of enterprise computing, which has been dominated by large and entrenched corporations, to a new world in which smaller, more nimble outfits upset the status quo with cloud-enabled software and mobile platforms.
We are in the middle of a $600 billion disruption, but hardly anyone has noticed. The once-staid world of enterprise computing is in silent convulsions, with incumbent giants being assaulted by startups that are building from scratch for a new era in which the cloud, mobile, and on-demand software will dominate. Hot companies such as Dropbox, Asana, and Atlassian will ascend to the throne, while the corpses of the old rulers – Microsoft, Oracle, SAP – will lie rotting in the gutter. The Great Replacement is beginning.
“There is really a full blown reawakening in the innovation of enterprise,” says Peter Levine, a general partner at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. “This is a renaissance in enterprise computing.”
And for many, Levine says, that’s going to hurt. Data centers are being supplanted by cloud infrastructure. On-premise applications will be surpassed by software as a service (SaaS). And, thanks to the rise of mobile, PCs will become increasingly marginalized. These three shifts are dramatic, real, and they’re enlivening a sector of computing that a decade ago everyone thought was dead.
“In my 25 years in this business, I’ve never seen three simultaneous shifts of this magnitude,”
“On the cloud infrastructure side, everything is up for disruption and opportunity,” says Levine. “We believe that all of this disruption from cloud, software as a service, and mobile is going to create huge opportunities, and there’s going to be 15 to 20 new franchises out of this disruption.”
Of course, even accounting for market expansion, those new franchises will come at someone’s expense. But the rewards are massive. Every year, Levine says, about $600 billion is spent on data centers, on-premise applications, and PCs. “There’s a massive opportunity for new companies and new players to take shape.”
Microsoft acknowledges the shifts to cloud, mobile, and SaaS, but it sees the transition as an opportunity rather than a threat. Today, 80 percent of the enterprise market is still using traditional commercial software packages, O’Brien estimates, while the service component accounts for the remaining 20 percent. While the move to a more distributed ecosystem is occurring, Microsoft envisages an interim period of 10 to 15 years when a hybrid scenario will prevail, in which case his company is well placed to cater to both needs.
Cannon-Brookes thinks the future will be a lot messier than just total SaaS. And even though the landscape is changing dramatically, the likes of Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP are by no means a spent force. “There’s certainly a place for those guys,” says Cannon-Brookes. “Will they have the same business in five years’ time? Of course not. But they would argue that they don’t have the same business as they had five years ago.”
There will be pain, for sure
The Great Replacement in enterprise is well under way.
Tomi Engdahl says:
IDC says Apple’s Ipad to regain market share from Android in 2012
Overall tablet sales will surpass original expectations
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2184698/idc-apple-s-ipad-regain-market-share-android-2012
RESEARCH OUTFIT IDC is predicting that the Apple Ipad will continue to dominate the tablet market throughout 2012, snatching back market share from its Android powered rivals.
In its latest report IDC has updated its forecast to shift a larger percentage of future tablet sales toward IOS and away from Google’s Android operating system. The firm now expects the Ipad to grab 62.5 per cent of the market in 2012, up from 58.2 per cent in 2011, while Android’s hold will slip from 38.7 per cent to 36.5 per cent.
Overall, IDC expects the entire tablet market to surpass its original expectations. Worldwide sales are now expected to hit 107.4 million units
“Demand for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the category from the commercial side,” said Mainelli.
“We expect pending new products from major players”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Disruptions: Wearable Gadgets Upset F.A.A. Curbs on Devices
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/disruptions-wearable-gadgets-upset-f-a-a-curbs-on-devices/
Pity the poor flight attendant. They didn’t sign up for this: millions of petulant airline passengers surreptitiously reading digital books and magazines on their iPads or Kindles during takeoff and landing.
The flight attendants are left to enforce the arcane rules of the Federal Aviation Administration, which mandate that people can’t use electronic devices — with the strange exception of electric razors and audio recorders — from the moment a plane leaves the gate until it reaches 10,000 feet.
This task is only going to become more complex for flight attendants as technology moves from your backpack or purse, to, well, you. Wearable computers on planes will be an enforcement nightmare.
Will the F.A.A. expect the flight crew to check wrists and examine glasses?
“My hope is that we will get some relief from the F.A.A., but I don’t expect them to step up and be prepared for these issues in a timely fashion. Technology is clearly 10 years ahead of the F.A.A.”
As I’ve written before, there is no proof that an iPad or Kindle in “Airplane Mode” can affect a plane’s flight systems. If they could, pilots would not be able to use them in the cockpit, a rule that the F.A.A. approved this year.
When I spoke to the F.A.A. late last year to ask why we couldn’t use these devices during takeoff and landing, Les Dorr, a spokesman for the agency, told me “it’s only really 10 minutes of time” that these devices can’t be used.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Microsoft Surface Just Made the MacBook Air and the iPad Look Obsolete
http://gizmodo.com/5919521
Microsoft has guts. It’s what you get when you’re the underdog; either that or you curl into a RIM and die. Microsoft is the underdog because no matter how many hundreds of millions of people use its software, the cool and the future belong to Apple. Or belonged.
Gates’ children may have found the weapon to stop the heirs of Jobs and turn the tide.
That weapon is Microsoft Surface. And it is beautiful. Beautiful and functional and simple and honest.
If Microsoft delivers—which means that the price and the battery life should be competitive with Apple’s offerings, and that keyboard lives up to its billing—it has a real chance of stopping the seemingly unstoppable Apple empire. Or at least slowing it down.
Now all the pieces are in place for a well-fought war, just like the good old days.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Et tu, Ballmer, or M’soft’s stab at tablets
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4375615/Et-tu–Ballmer–or-M-soft-s-stab-at-tablets
Pre-announcing your own Windows 8 tablet a few months before your OEM customers are ready to roll out their own products. That’s not gutsy, it’s just gross.
For years, PC makers have slavishly followed your systems requirements, jumped on your bandwagons (like Windows for Pen Computing), and this is their payment.
The scant information on the Microsoft Surface tablet is unimpressive. It looks very much like a me-too system. I fail to see any compelling differences over the Apple iPad.
One source told me he heard Acer engineers describe this as a betrayal. “Microsoft wants to charge $80 to $90 royalty per Windows RT device while bring out this tablet under its own logo—it’s unfair competition which will accelerate more adaption of Android,” he said.
He reports an ODM company saying they feel they have “wasted all the investment [on a] promised [Win 8 tablet] business [and] will have to shift focus again.”
Taiwan’s PC makers have told me more than once they see Android as a better road to tablets than Windows 8. It’s free and it already has a well-established user base and ecosystem of apps.
Tomi Engdahl says:
IDC – Press Release
PC Volume to Grow Almost 5% in 2012, But Will Expand Further in 2013 and Beyond, According to IDC
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS23549112
he worldwide PC market is expected to grow 5% year over year in 2012, in what is likely to be a challenging year.
According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, nearly 383 million PCs will ship into the market this year, a slight improvement over the tepid growth seen in 2011
IDC continues to have a conservative view toward PC purchases in mature markets, which are generally expected to return to growth mode in 2012 after a contraction in 2011.
Windows 8 could help to reinvigorate a consumer market that has lost a degree of enthusiasm in recent years. However, questions about the release date, functions, and pricing for Windows 8 limit the contribution the new operating system may make in 2012. The good news, however, is that the forthcoming release of Windows 8 promises to bring new classes of products that could lead to a stronger refresh cycle as the year ends
Consumer PC shipments are expected to see modest growth in 2012 with the revamp of a sleeker Wintel platform fueling additional growth in 2013 through 2016. IDC expects the forecast period to culminate with total PC shipments topping 528 million units in 2016.
Tomi Engdahl says:
The Rapidly Changing Desktop
http://www.linuxjournal.com/content/rapidly-changing-desktop
I opined that very shortly, the desktop would be our cell phone and there would be no need to put file servers at everyone’s desk. This was partially driven by the announcement that morning, at LinuxCon, by Qualcomm, that they were going to put dual-core 1 GHz processors in their next generation cell phones. This professional pooh-poohed the idea as completely unworkable.
Flash forward to 2012, and not only is it workable, it is viable, and very realistic.
Note that as I go through this, when I am talking about a desktop, I mean either a physical desktop machine or a laptop, but in either case it is the standard CPU/RAM/hard disk system connected to a monitor or monitors with a mouse/trackball and keyboard via docking station, cables, or wireless and running a fat operating system – whether that is Linux, Windows, or Mac.
80% of the people are using only 20% of the computing power in their machines.
The other 20% are doing tasks that are computationally taxing. These people have need for some serious horsepower.
Now, five years ago, I would have argued that the group doing the computationally taxing work could have justified a personal desktop device. The rest could be connected by a thin client to a virtual desktop located in the server room.
There is no real difference between having a dedicated machine and running in a virtual environment. In the case of those developers who have been here longer, moving to a virtual environment actually increased their ability to work because of the age of their original development platforms.
I tared up my desktop and pushed the contents up to my file server.
No harm, no foul, and here is my laptop, please install putty and a VNC viewer on it so I can use it as a dumb terminal.
My retort was to ask to have my iPad put on the wireless network
A quick search of the web and I found a suitable ssh client and the Real VNC viewer. I hooked up my bluetooth keyboard and bang, I was operational – remoted into my desktop.
If I could do this with my iPad, could I do it with my iPhone? Well, I would not recommend it without a way to remote your video to something bigger, but the answer was yes. And I remembered my conversation. I had moved my desktop to my phone. What was a theory two years ago in my mind had become a practical reality.
I am not going to say that we will see a conversion to this new model overnight. But I think we will see it sooner, rather than later.
In 2010, I said the desktop is dead and the mobile device will be the new meme, but it had a long way to go. Under Moore’s law, a long way is a very short time.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Nexus 7 and Surface: A bonanza for landfill miners
The fish aren’t going to get on the bicycles
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/06/29/google_ms_tablet_strategies_wtf/
It would be charitable (that is, untrue) to call the consumer electronics strategies of Microsoft and Google coherent today. But what they lack in coherence they make up for in er, … sheer recklessness. That’s OK, then.
Both stalwarts are now in head-on competition with their customers, having launched their own-brand tablets, rather than the software for other people to make tablets. They’re also diving into retail in the chase after Apple, a hugely expensive move that usually ends in tears.
Without stuff to do, Tablets remain as the forgotten niche of computing – the Kindle and the iPad being the exception because of their close relationships with the content production sectors. And without content, neither Microsoft nor Google have much of a story.
Google is relying on the increasingly bare public internet for “stuff”, of which nothing is exclusive to Google. Microsoft has Xbox games. But neither YouTube nor Xbox access make a tablet indispensable. And “access to stuff” is simpler and easier on a Kindle or iPad than on either Surface or the Nexus 7.
Of the two losers, Microsoft’s Surface looks a slightly cannier bet, because it’s really a laptop
Unless something changes, everything points to a boom in the landfill business
Tomi says:
It seems that the growth of the PC sales is slowing down or stalling.
Personal computer growth stalled in the second quarter, and Dell Inc. slid further into third place among the largest PC makers, well behind market leaders Hewlett-Packard Co. and China’s Lenovo Group, according to a report from industry tracking firm International Data Corp.
The U.S. market was especially weak, with purchases down 10.6 percent from last year. Asia also saw its purchases slide into negative territory. IDC said Asia, which has fueled growth in the PC market for the past few years, saw its worst performance in years. Slower shipments to China and India were factors, but IDC said other Asian markets also contributed to the slowdown. The overall global PC market was flat, with sales down 0.1 percent, IDC said.
the U.S. slowdown to “market saturation and economic factors combined with anticipation of Windows 8 and other changes later in the year.”
Source:
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/news/article.asp?docKey=600-201207120822KRTRIB__BUSNEWS_23192_39262-1¶ms=timestamp||07/12/2012%208:22%20AM%20ET||headline||Dell%20takes%20hit%20as%20global%20PC%20sales%20stall%20in%202nd%20quarter%20[Austin%20American-Statesman,%20Texas]||docSource||Knight%20Ridder/Tribune||provider||ACQUIREMEDIA||bridgesymbol||US;HPQ&ticker=HPQ:US
Tomi Engdahl says:
IDC Lowers PC Outlook As Shipments Decline In Second Quarter Ahead Of Fall Product Updates
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS23660312
The worldwide PC market is now expected to grow just 0.9% in 2012, as mid-year shipments slow. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, 367 million PCs will ship into the market this year, up just a fraction of a percent from 2011 and marking the second consecutive year of growth below 2%.
Slowing growth in Asia/Pacific has reduced the impact of emerging market growth, while more mature regions like the United States have seen volume decline. Consumers have been hit by weak economic conditions, but are also waiting to see what Windows 8 and Ultrabook products will look like while considering spending on other products like media tablets and smartphones.
“IDC remains optimistic that PC penetration opportunities in emerging markets will form the bulwark of the market and help sustain double-digit Portable PC growth in the long run.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
HP’s bad quarter could prove bad for America
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9230601/HP_s_bad_quarter_could_prove_bad_for_America
China on verge of being world’s top PC maker, and the PC business of HP or Dell could be headed there too
Unless Hewlett-Packard gets its act together quickly, Lenovo will soon become the world’s number one PC maker.
If that happens, it’s going to create a moment of national angst.
A Lenovo lead in the PC market would prompt widespread commentary about how the U.S. is losing its place in the world as the tech leader.
Some others in the technology chattering class could try to rationalize it, declaring that the PC is just a commodity and that we’ve entered the post-PC era.
That would be wrong. We’re no more in the post-PC era than we are in the post-car era. The PC is, and will remain, a monumentally important part of getting work done.
Gartner’s report on second quarter PC shipments, released last month, showed HP with 14.9% of the world’s PC market, and Lenovo with 14.7%. Most troubling for HP in the Gartner report were the PC growth rates — HP’s share declined by more than 12% while Lenovo’s share increased by nearly 15%.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Michael Dell is not worried about the post-PC era
http://www.citeworld.com/consumerization/20627/michael-dell-vmworld-consumerization
Michael Dell defied predictions of the PC’s doom, noting that PC sales have more than tripled since the term “post-PC” was first coined in 1999.
But when a poll of the audience named the rise of “post-PC” devices as the number-one trend in IT this year, outgoing VMware CEO Paul Maritz had to respond:
“I defy anyone to edit a PowerPoint presentation on a mobile phone.”
“Think about all these mobile devices and ask how you secure these mobile devices, it probably involves virtualizing the corporate client, then have it show up on any device they use.”
Dell also pointed out that 380 million PCs were sold last year. “The post-PC era has been pretty good for PCs so far.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
iOS and Android Adoption Explodes Internationally
http://blog.flurry.com/bid/88867/iOS-and-Android-Adoption-Explodes-Internationally
The rate of iOS and Android device adoption has surpassed that of any consumer technology in history. Compared to recent technologies, smart device adoption is being adopted 10X faster than that of the 80s PC revolution, 2X faster than that of 90s Internet Boom and 3X faster than that of recent social network adoption.
Five years into the smart device growth curve, expansion of this new technology is rapidly expanding beyond early adopter markets such as such as North America and Western Europe, creating a true worldwide addressable market. Overall, Flurry estimates that there were over 640 million iOS and Android devices in use during the month of July 2012.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Smartphone sales is accelerating: traditional mobile phones will remain a minority
Smartphones go global sell better than earlier projections, research firm IHS iSuppli estimates.
Previously, iSuppli estimates that the earliest in 2015, the total industry volume for more than half of them are smart phones. Now iSuppli estimates that next year 54 per cent of cellphones will be smartphones.
This year, the proportion of smart phones sold in the mobile phones of 46 percent, the research firm estimates.
The reason for earlier estimates of more rapid proliferation of smart phones is the price decrease of the equipment. Cheap smartphones are selling well, especially in Asia.
Source: http://www.tietoviikko.fi/kaikki_uutiset/alypuhelimien+myynti+kiihtyy+perinteiset+kannykat+jaavat+vahemmistoon/a832882?s=r&wtm=tietoviikko/-29082012&
Tomi Engdahl says:
As Wintel Dominance Wanes, the Microsoft/Intel Alliance Frays
http://www.isuppli.com/memory-and-storage/news/pages/as-wintel-dominance-wanes-the-microsoft-intel-alliance-frays.aspx
After a generation of setting the pace and calling the shots in the computer market, the Microsoft Corp./Intel Corp. cartel known as Wintel now finds itself playing catch-up in the new era of smartphones and media tablets, spurring a widening rift in the historic alliance.
Despite a flurry of activities to adjust to the changed realities of the technology industry, Wintel is expected to suffer a declining share of the “new” computer market, a category consisting not just of PCs but also of the much faster-growing smartphone and media tablet segments.
Intel’s share of microprocessors will fall to 29 percent, down from 41 percent. At the same time, the total size of the market will double from 2011 to 2016, almost entirely due to the strong growth of the smartphone and media tablet segments
“With smartphones and tablets performing tasks previously exclusive to PCs, the computer market has expanded to include other platforms. As a result, Wintel finds itself in the unfamiliar position of dancing to someone else’s tune”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Pew: Almost 70 Percent Of Affluent Adults Own Smartphones
http://marketingland.com/pew-releases-more-smartphone-data-on-eve-of-iphone-5-launch-21127
Based on a survey of more than 3,000 adults earlier this month, Pew says that 45 percent of Americans 18 and older now own smartphones. However the numbers go up when looking only at mobile subscribers (88 percent of all adults).
Pew says that among mobile phone owners smartphone penetration is 53 percent. Nielsen says that it’s now 55 percent and comScore reports that smartphone penetration is just over 49 percent.
According to the Pew data, confirming other research, smartphone ownership is greater for more affluent Americans as well as younger users. Smartphone penetration is highest among those 18 to 49 and for those making more than $50,000 per year, especially those whose incomes exceed $75,000 annually.
Nielsen: Overall, young adults are leading the growth in smartphone ownership in the U.S., with 74 percent of 25-34 year olds now owning smartphones, up from 59 percent in July 2011.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Why Pilots Can Use iPads and You Can’t
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/technology/2012/09/why-pilots-can-use-ipads-and-you-cant/56735/
Just as all hope was lost for flyers in the crusade to use gadgets during take-off and landing, American Airlines pilots just got the Federal Aviation Association go-ahead to use iPads during all phases of flight. It seems unfair to passengers packing iPads, doesn’t it?
But, the rules for people operating the planes are different than the ones for you and me.
Tomi Engdahl says:
The school that swapped its laptops for iPads… and wants to switch back
http://www.pcpro.co.uk/blogs/2012/09/11/the-school-that-swapped-its-laptops-for-ipads-and-wants-to-switch-back/
There have been several well-publicised stories of schools bringing iPads into the classroom. However, a PC Pro reader has got in touch with a cautionary tale from the other side of the fence.
Our source says staff were initially thrilled at the prospect. “Most staff are IT illiterate and jumped at the chance of exchanging their laptop for an iPad,” he writes.
Now, however: “the staff room is full of regret.”
What’s gone wrong? The biggest obstacle is that staff still cling to old documents and resources created in software such as Microsoft Word and PowerPoint, and of course there aren’t fully-fledged versions of the Office apps available for the iPad as yet.
Staff are also having problems transferring work to their devices. “One of the biggest problems is the storage, since you can’t connect USB memory sticks to it,”
The iPad experiment hasn’t been a total disaster. The staff prefer the tablets for note-taking in meetings, and they use an app called Emerge to access the school’s pupil database.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Microsoft’s Windows RT signals shift to mobile computing, says Qualcomm
Operating system marks beginning of the end for the PC era
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2204660/microsofts-windows-rt-signals-shift-to-mobile-computing-says-qualcomm
BERLIN: SOFTWARE FIRM Microsoft’s upcoming Windows RT operaing system signals a shift to mobile computing and marks the beginning of the end for the PC era, according to chip maker Qualcomm.
Qualcomm’s COO Steve Mollenkopf claims that in the future, all devices will run using mobile operating systems. He cited the upcoming Microsoft Windows RT operating system as support for his claim.
“In Windows RT we’re seeing a blend of the smartphone world with the PC world… a move from legacy computing to mobile computing,” said Mollenkopf.
“We imagine that in the future all of our devices will be connected together. Our phone will be a remote for life, controlling everything we do,” said Mollenkopf.
Tomi Engdahl says:
HP boss Whitman: ‘We have to offer a smartphone’
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/14/hp_whitman_smartphone_plans/
Hewlett Packard may have crashed and burned when it last tried to crack the mobile device market, but it isn’t ready to give up yet. According to CEO Meg Whitman, a new smartphone from HP is not a matter of “if”, but “when”.
Describing HP’s bungled acquisition of Palm as “a detour into smartphones,” Whitman told Fox Business that the PC maker definitely still has mobile ambitions, but that it’s essential to “get it right this time.”
“My view is we have to ultimately offer a smartphone, because in many countries of the world, that is your first computing device,”
That will mean large portions of the world’s population will have little use for HP products, unless something changes. Unlike such rivals as Apple, Samsung, and Sony, HP has never successfully penetrated the consumer phone biz.
Tomi Engdahl says:
It’s Official: The Era of the Personal Computer Is Over
http://allthingsd.com/20120915/its-official-the-era-of-the-personal-computer-is-over/
As a signpost on the road to the so-called Post-PC Era we’ve been hearing about for so many years, this one is pretty hard to argue with: As of this year, personal computers no longer consume the majority of the world’s memory chip supply.
Word of this tipping point came quietly in the form of a press release from the market research firm IHS (the same group formerly known as iSuppli). The moment came during the second quarter of 2012.
During that period, PCs accounted for the consumption of 49 percent of DRAM produced around the world
PCs have consumed the majority of memory chips since sometime in the 1980s.
And given their rates of growth, IHS expects phones and tablets combined to consume about 27 percent of the world’s memory by 2013, while by that time PCs will consume less than 43 percent, making the decline, in the firm’s estimation, irreversible.
Last year, PC makers shipped about 353 million machines, an increase of about one-half of one percent, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the industry finish the year with a slight decline in shipments year-over-year.
So perhaps now the academic debates about where the Post-PC Era begins can come to a close.
Tomi Engdahl says:
IHS: Tablet Display Shipments To Grow 56% In 2012, Smaller Tablets Gaining Share
http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/17/ihs-tablet-display-shipments-to-grow-56-in-2012-smaller-tablets-gaining-share/
Apple’s iPad is the primary driver responsible for a 56 percent annual bump in shipments in the tablet display market, according to a new report from supply chain research firm IHS. Total shipments are expected to hit 126.6 million units, up from 82.1 million last year, with larger devices including Apple’s iPad driving the bulk of those shipments.
But the 7-inch market is growing quickly, and will account for a much larger percentage of the tablet industry in 2012 than it did in 2011. 9.x-inch displays will account for the majority with 59 percent, but 7.x-inch displays are projected to grow in shipment volume from 20.8 to 40.1 million units between last year and 2012.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Hardware is dead
http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/15/hardware-is-dead/
I walked into the middle of the scrum to a random stall. I pointed to one of the devices on display and asked, “How much for this one?” 300 kuai.
If this were a movie, the lights would have dimmed and all the activity in the room frozen. 300 renminbi is US $ 45. And that was the initial offer price given to a bewildered foreigner in China, no haggling. I felt a literal shock.
I bought the device and did some more research. This was a 7-inch tablet, Wi-Fi only with all the attributes of a good tablet.
I later found out that these devices are now all over the supply chain in Shenzhen. At volume, say 20,000 units, you can get them for $35 apiece.
At these levels there is almost no profit margin left in the hardware business.
A $45 tablet is cheap enough to be an impulse purchase at the check-out line in Best Buy. A $45 price puts tablets within reach of a whole hos
This trend is not entirely surprising
I think this leads to an important conclusion: No one can make money selling hardware anymore. The only way to make money with hardware is to sell something else and get consumers to pay for the whole device and experience.
Obviously, Apple sells more than just hardware. It sells iOS. It sells the Apple Brand.
I expect to see more retailers step in. Toys ‘R Us entered the market this week with its tablet for kids.
At $45 retail, we will probably start to see tablets become giveaways.
In the PC world 10 years ago we encountered similar trends. It was very hard to make money selling hardware, so HP and Dell ended up making most of their money selling pre-loads for AOL and other online services, or through marketing funds from their suppliers.
Offsetting the declines I expect from the hardware OEMs (or branded manufacturers), there is some good news for component suppliers. Companies with innovative features in silicon or very tight cost structures will benefit.
a device that looks a lot like my A-Pad was on sale at Fry’s Electronics for $79. No brand listed. The process has already begun.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Tablets priced US$199-400 are expected to drop in price to US$150-200 in order to help non-Apple tablet makers stay competitive when Apple releases its reported 7.85-inch iPad, according to industry sources.
If major tablet makers were to drop product prices they would most likely not incur losses as many makers make a substantial amount of profits from 3G plans with telecommunication providers
Source: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120917PD213.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
ZTE to Launch Smartphones Using Mozilla OS
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444620104578005693329721704.html
The move is the latest indication that handset makers are looking beyond Google Inc.’s dominant Android mobile operating system as they try to diversify the software platforms for their smartphones and other mobile devices.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Application development costs for Windows 8 only one-third those for Android, iOS, say Taiwan ISVs
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120920PD202.html
Total development costs for Windows-based applications, including time and manpower, is only one-third that for applications based on Android or iOS due to strong support by development tools offered by Microsoft, according to Taiwan-based independent software vendors (ISVs) which have developed Windows 8-based applications for the Windows Store.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Challenge: Transport data to and from displays and image sensors in mobile devices—Part I
http://www.edn.com/design/sensors/4396908/Challenge–Transport-data-to-and-from-displays-and-image-sensors-in-tablets–handsets–and-laptops-Part-I?cid=EDNToday
The user interfaces of mobile and consumer electronics devices (CE) have undergone a remarkable transformation in just a few years.
Having 3D high-resolution displays and high-resolution image sensors come with a price, and create a new set of challenges for the system designers. This paper examines some of the difficulties involved in transporting huge amounts of data to and from displays and image sensors in tablets, handsets, and laptops. The second part of this paper is dedicated to presenting workable solutions.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Contract Manufacturers Make About Nine Out of 10 Media Tablets in 2012
http://www2.electronicproducts.com/Contract_Manufacturers_Make_About_Nine_Out_of_10_Media_Tablets_in_2012-article-news02_21_sep2012-html.aspx
Although your new media tablet may sport the logo of a familiar brand name like Apple or Amazon, there’s a 90 percent chance the device was actually made by a company with a much less famous moniker, such as Hon Hai or Quanta.
That’s because the vast majority of tablets—including the iPad and Kindle Fire—actually are made by contract or outsourced manufacturers based in Asia, according to an IHS iSuppli Global Manufacturing & Design Report from information and analytics provider.
Outsourced manufacturers in 2011 were responsible for 87.5 percent of tablet production, compared to 12.5 percent that were made in-house. The percentage of outsourced tablets this year is expected to increase to 89.2 percent,
“The high percentage of outsourced manufacturing of tablets reflects the choice among tablet brands and original equipment manufacturers—even ones as big as Apple—to refrain from in-house production,”
“Tablet brands use outsourcing for many reasons, including faster time to market; the leveraging of capabilities, especially for firmware development and hardware integration; and asset flexibility that translates into reduced corporate expenditures and lower headcount.”
The biggest contract manufacturer of tablets is Apple partner Hon Hai, of Taiwan, also known as Foxconn. Hon Hai accounted for 62 percent of tablet shipments last year.
close relationship with Apple.
Hon Hai is an EMS provider, a type of outsourced manufacturer that generally does not participate in designing product but simply offers manufacturing and supply chain management services.
With the emergence of Android—and soon, Windows-based tablets—ODMs will have a better chance of breaking Hon Hai’s near-impregnable hold on the market.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Tablet and laptop sales neck and neck
Era of the notebook over?
http://www.reghardware.com/2012/09/28/brits_bought_as_many_tablets_as_laptops_in_august/
Brits bought as many tablets as laptops in August, market watcher GfK said today.
Good news for tablet proponents, that, but not for the folk making and selling computer kit. They make less money selling slabs than notebooks.
So while notebooks accounted for 33.6 per cent of IT sales revenue in August 2012, down from 34.5 per cent in August 2011, only 19.5 per cent of the same total came from tablet sales, GfK’s numbers show.
Desktop sales fell from 14.5 per cent of total revenue to 13.9 per cent. Packaged software sales’ share of revenues dropped from 13.8 per cent to 9.4 per cent, on the back of those declining desktop and laptop sales.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Smart phones and laptops continued use of more sleep problems and obesity, the American Institute Rensselaer Polytehchnic University, a recent study says.
According to the study the two-hour exposure devices backlight reduces the body’s ability to produce melatonin ( hormone that regulates sleep patterns). This in turn can cause sleep problems, especially for young and old.
Technological advances have led to ever-larger and brighter TVs as well as PCs and smartphones screens. This is a graduate Brittany Woods of concern, especially among young adults and growth in terms of age, who have a tendency to stay up late anyway.
Source: http://www.tietoviikko.fi/kaikki_uutiset/alyluurin+taustavalo+voi+aiheuttaa+uniongelmia/a843639?s=r&wtm=tietoviikko/-02102012&
Tomi Engdahl says:
Analysts slash Ultrabook sales estimate by over 50%
Global ‘meh’ over overpriced laptops
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/10/01/isuppli_slashes_ultrabook_estimates/
Analyst house IHS iSuppli has slashed its forecast for Ultrabook sales by more than half for this year, and the outlook for 2013 could hardly be described as rosy, as well.
Earlier in the year, iSuppli predicted that 22 million of the svelte laptops would ship by the end of 2012, but it’s now cut that forecast to 10.3 million.
“So far, the PC industry has failed to create the kind of buzz and excitement among consumers that is required to propel ultrabooks into the mainstream,” said Craig Stice, senior principal analyst for compute platforms at IHS in an emailed statement.
“This is especially a problem amid all the hype surrounding media tablets and smartphones,” he writes. “When combined with other factors, including prohibitively high pricing, this means that ultrabook sales will not meet expectations in 2012.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Market-research firm IHS iSuppli has forecast that the global tablet sales will surge 85% this year to 126.6 million units. Last year, the iPad held a dominant share of roughly 60% of the global tablet market.
Source: http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10000872396390443635404578033684191275730-lMyQjAxMTAyMDAwMzAwODM3Wj.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
RIM, Windows Continue To Lose Mobile Market Share, Android Near 53 Percent — comScore
http://marketingland.com/rim-windows-continue-to-lose-mobile-market-share-comscore-23135
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chemical Analysis Reveals that New Phones Have Fewer Toxics
http://ifixit.org/3443/chemical-analysis-reveals-that-new-phones-have-fewer-toxics/
High technology feels so clean—no coal or steam or mess, just cool aluminum, sleek plastics, and polished glass. But that clean surface hides an interior that is far messier and more toxic. In partnership with HealthyStuff.org, we bring you a chemical analysis of 36 mobile phones, including the iPhone 5.
Tomi Engdahl says:
HP smartphone not coming in 2013, says CEO Meg Whitman
http://www.computerworlduk.com/news/mobile-wireless/3401999/hp-smartphone-not-coming-in-2013-says-ceo-meg-whitman/
HP has no plans to launch a smartphone next year but will need to sell one eventually to avoid missing out on “a huge segment of the population,” CEO Meg Whitman said yesterday
But HP will need one within five years to avoid missing out on a big segment of the market, its CEO said
Tomi Engdahl says:
Tablet security study finds BlackBerry still good for something
iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tab and PlayBook face off in BYOD probe
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/10/05/tablet_security_audit/
A technology audit has identified security failings in three of the most popular tablets, raising concerns about the security implications of allowing workers to use their personal technology at work.
A study by Context Information Security looked at Apple’s iPad, Samsung’s Galaxy Tab and RIM’s BlackBerry PlayBook, and concluded the Samsung device was the least enterprise-ready of the trio. While the iPad and BlackBerry PlayBook performed better, both still have security deficiencies – including desktop software that fails to encrypt backups by default.
The BlackBerry was the only device of the three found to provide good separation between personal and work data, something that ought to be a key feature in supporting the growing trend of Bring Your Own Device (BYOD).
We can’t stop BYOD
Jonathan Roach, principal consultant at Context and author of the report, concludes that even though security controls are easier to apply on traditional desktops and laptops, the trend towards allowing working to bring their own devices into work is unstoppable.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Television Network Embeds Android Device In Magazine Ads
http://slashdot.org/story/12/10/04/2226246/television-network-embeds-android-device-in-magazine-ads
“Readers of Entertainment Weekly might be shocked to find their magazine is a good bit heavier than normal this week. US-based broadcaster CW placed an ad in Entertainment Weekly which uses a fully-functional 3G Android device, a T-Mobile SIM card, and a specialized app to display short video advertisements along with the CW Twitter feed.”
Entertainment Weekly Packs Free “Smartphone” Inside Magazine
http://www.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/728532/entertainment-weekly-packs-free-smartphone-inside-magazine/
Remember when magazines used to pack CD-ROMs in with their publications? Advertisers to Entertainment Weekly have taken that idea to the present, and is including a working Android-powered advertising device in their latest issue. Not only that, it’s essentially a working, full-sized 3G cellphone inside their publication.
The digital device is designed to show off clips from CW shows The Arrow and Emily Owens, M.D., and then revert to live tweets from the CW’s twitter feed.
The technical wizards at Mashable were able to reset the device, access the on-screen Android menu and full set of apps. They even used the device to make a phone call. Obviously, this took a lot of work, and it’s not like you can use the device as a phone in any legitimate sense, but how amazing is this?
The ad-device/phone is available in the October 5 issue of Entertainment Weekly, but there are only 1,000 copies with the free phone, so hit that newsstand.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Apple’s domination of the tablet market is crumbling, U.S. study shows. When last year the iPad’s market share was 81 percent in the United States, this year it has fallen to 52 per cent.
Nearly half of Americans tablets is now based on the Android operating system. The most popular is Amozonin Kindle Fire, a market share of 21 per cent.
The tablet use is constantly increasing: in July last year, only 11 percent of U.S. adults owned a device, in January this year and 18 per cent in August the number had risen to 25 per cent.
The new Android-based devices are cheaper that iPad which could have influences the market share.
Source: http://m.tietoviikko.fi/Uutiset/IPadin+ylivoima+murenee
Tomi Engdahl says:
In A Keyboard-Free Future, What Happens To All The Writers?
http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/07/in-a-keyboard-free-future-what-happens-to-all-the-writers/
I wrote this post with my voice. I made no changes, save for a few typo corrections, and used no keyboard. That’s probably why it’s so bad.
It’s an experiment of mine. The hypothesis is whether or not a keyboardless world will change writing. And make no mistake, at some point we will live in a keyboardless world.
Right now, it’s the small things. It’s voice controls, motion controls, and eye-tracking software.
But small queries to Siri and voice to text transcription will take over for longform writing as well. This is only the beginning. When the technology gets good enough, contextual enough, writers will speak their thoughts.
Sure, it’s faster and more efficient to speak. This is the same argument that was made for the keyboard against pens and paper.
In short, good ideas don’t come from saying them, they come from writing them.
The question isn’t whether or not beautiful writing, and good ideas, will survive. The real question is how we, as writers, will adapt.
Will we be the only citizens of the world tied to ancient keyboards?