This posting is a collection on trends and predictions for year 2021.
The year 202 was grappled with fear of infection, incredible loss of loved ones, financial stress, isolation and fatigue from constant uncertainty to name a few. Many people expect that 2021 will mark a turning point. Heading into 2021, technology — both new and existing — will help firms achieve these aims and emerge from the crisis on sound footing. Even though we are getting closer to returning to normality as vaccines start to roll out, we can’t write COVID-19 off just yet. We are only now beginning to see the long-lasting effects of the pandemic.
Coronavirus: How The Pandemic Could Play Out In 2021 article tells that Vaccines for COVID-19 are now being rolled out, but in some parts of the world, this good news has been tempered by the emergence of new, potentially more infectious strains of the virus. Exactly how the pandemic will evolve has become more uncertain.
Certainly, the next three or so months will be challenging, and a virus-free life is probably some way off.
Some things may not return to how they were before. How to find your motivation in the new year from hell? How is anyone supposed to find their motivation when most of us are so completely spent? Nearly Half Of ICU Staff Working Through Pandemic Have Mental Health Issues, U.K. Study Shows.
Step one: surrender to the suck – ”preserve your sanity by keeping your expectations spectacularly low” “The paradoxical theory of change,” argues Samuel, “means that the more you accept the things you don’t want, the more you’ll be able to live with them.”
Follow Covid-19 safety recommendations. Fighting to put a timeline on things will only make you abject with misery when they fail to materialise. Prioritizing tech in 2021 will be the path to pandemic recovery for mental health
Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2021
Forrester predictions for 2021 web page has blog posts, videos, guides, and other resources to navigate a fast-changing landscape and thrive.
Internet 2021 is not what movies projected it to be. Johnny Mnemonic’s vision of the internet circa 2021 isn’t strictly accurate, the film rings truer overall to the world around us that you might expect. Read How ‘Johnny Mnemonic’ Predicted the World of ‘Internet 2021’
21 Comments
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://blog.wego.com/travel-2021-predictions/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Pandemic Chip Shortages Are Shutting Down Automotive Production
https://hackaday.com/2021/01/18/pandemic-chip-shortages-are-shutting-down-automotive-production/
Once upon a time, the automobile was a mostly mechanical beast, but no longer. Advanced electronics have weaved their way into the modern car, from engine to infotainment and climate control to the buttons now sprinkled throughout the passenger cabin. The gains in amenity and efficiency can’t be sniffed at, but it leaves manufacturers reliant on semiconductor suppliers to get cars out the door. Over the past year, it’s become much more complicated — with many automakers having to slow production in the face of integrated circuit shortages that can be traced back to Spring of 2020.
Unsurprisingly, the blame for this situation can be lain firmly at the doorstep of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Automakers were forced to scale back production as factories closed to avoid spreading the deadly virus. This meant slashing orders with suppliers, particularly as the just-in-time nature of modern automobile production means there’s little to no space to warehouse excess parts in factories. It coincided with a drop in automotive sales during the early part of lock down, as few contemplated new car purchases during the turmoil of March and April, 2020.
Semiconductor shortage forces automobile production cuts
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-bb12adb6106019a618440d85fd91f77e
Tomi Engdahl says:
Peering Into the COVID-19 End Game
https://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/innovation/peering-into-the-covid-19-end-game
Spoiler alert: We won’t get what we want in 2021. A year into the COVID-19 pandemic, we can expect to remain in a kind of limbo for months yet, stuck in an uncomfortable place between health and illness, economic contraction and recovery, all while still maintaining awkward distances and yearning for heartwarming hugs.
We will, however, get what we need. There’ll be new tools, customs, and shared experiences to help us manage this weird time between the pre-COVID world and the postpandemic era. With the help of these things we’ll get better at persevering, as we adapt and develop new means of working and playing. We’ll even find novel ways of being together without, you know, being together. The diverse array of innovations that will emerge this year—medical, technical, occupational, and cultural—will surprise, dismay, and in some cases, delight us. And some of them, deeply woven into the fabric of everyday life, will persist long after the pandemic becomes a somber memory.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/2021-beyond-coronavirus-what-s-store-science-year-ahead.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/space-flight/10-exciting-engineering-milestones-to-look-for-in-2021
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.iflscience.com/space/2021s-most-exciting-space-missions-the-moon-mars-and-the-worlds-most-powerful-space-telescope/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Best Linux distros of 2021 for beginners, mainstream and advanced users
https://www.techradar.com/best/best-linux-distros
Tomi Engdahl says:
Trend in 2021 seems to be stupidoty by performing stupid crimes on youtube/livestream and then wondering why you get punished for that later.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Traps Intel’s Prodigal Son Should Avoid
https://www.eetimes.com/traps-intels-prodigal-son-should-avoid/
CEO succession matters. We just witnessed Intel reportedly having forced out Bob Swan to install Pat Gelsinger, its prodigal son, while Qualcomm handed over the baton to president Cristiano Amon.
Business is constantly besieged by external forces, from a sudden rise of competition (home or abroad) to trade wars, natural disasters and, lately, a pandemic.
Intel to replace CEO after rocky stretch
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2021/01/15/2003750589
REVERSED COURSE: The leadership change came after the US firm last year announced a substancial delay to its next-generation chipmaking project to next year or 2023
Tomi Engdahl says:
TSMC forecasts 15% sales growth in 2021
https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202101140020
TSMC on track to move 3nm process to risk production in 2021
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20210115PD208.html
TSMC is on track to move 3nm process technology to risk production in 2021 followed by volume production in the second half of 2022, according to the pure-play foundry.
“Our N3 technology development is on track with good progress,” said TSMC CEO CC Wei at the company’s earnings conference call on January 14. “We are seeing a much higher level of customer engagement for both HPC and smartphone application at N3 as compared with N5 and N7 at a similar stage.”
TSMC also set its capex target at US$25-28 billion, far higher than the US$20-22 billion estimated mostly by market observers.
Tomi Engdahl says:
China eyes bolstering control of rare earths as national strategy
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/17/business/china-rare-earths/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Von Neumann Is Struggling
https://semiengineering.com/von-neumann-is-struggling/
The backbone of computing architecture for 75 years is being supplanted by more efficient, less general compute architectures.
Tomi Engdahl says:
The Hyperscale Data Center Era Is Here—What It Means for Your Workforce
The shift to hyperscale is rapidly changing the skills and tools needed for consulting engineers to meet the industry’s demands, both today and in the future.
https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded-revolution/article/21149918/schneider-electric-the-hyperscale-data-center-era-is-herewhat-it-means-for-your-workforce?utm_source=EG+ED+IoT+for+Engineers&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS210112086&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R
Tomi Engdahl says:
Here Are The Biggest Risks To Derail An Economic Recovery In 2021, Goldman Sachs Warns
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2021/01/24/here-are-the-biggest-risks-to-derail-an-economic-recovery-in-2021-goldman-sachs-warns/?utm_campaign=forbes&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Gordie
As the United States races to distribute vaccines amid a winter surge in Covid-19 cases and lawmakers weigh another tranche of federal stimulus spending, analysts from investment giant Goldman Sachs are pointing to three major risks that could jeopardize the strong economic recovery and robust consumer spending boom they’re predicting in 2021.
In that scenario, the analysts predict that any progress towards herd immunity would be “lost or severely set back” and as a result, consumer spending wouldn’t recover until 2022.
Last, the analysts said heightened consumer caution, especially among at-risk groups like older individuals, that lingers after the virus abates could delay the return to normal, but they noted this risk is relatively limited since consumer spending has only fallen slightly this winter despite a huge surge in Covid-19 cases.
“We expect the spread of the virus will be a major determinant of the balance of risks going forward,” the analysts wrote, “as higher case counts increase the chances of problematic mutations and lower case counts raise the prospects of an upside surprise to consumer spending in 2021.”
These aren’t the only risks the economy will face this year. The World Bank warned earlier this month that a “growing wave of debt” caused by unprecedented government stimulus spending to combat the coronavirus could lead to recessions down the road. Some experts have also suggested that too much stimulus spending could overheat the economy and send inflation to dangerously high levels, but Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said he believes the effects will be manageable in the long-term. “The dynamics will change,” he said in a recent interview at Princeton University, “but we don’t think they change quickly or on a dime.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
TSMC Hikes Forecast as COVID-19 Pandemic Transforms Digital Demand
https://replaytimes.com/tsmc-hikes-forecast-as-covid-19-pandemic-transforms-digital-demand-2/
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing hiked its revenue outlook after logging record quarterly profit, and painted a bullish picture of demand picking up over the next two years as advanced technologies are adopted more widely.
The chip sector has been one of the rare industries benefiting from the coronavirus pandemic with more people investing in premium devices as they spend longer hours at home and as corporations seek to add more bandwidth for remote workers.
The world’s largest contract chipmaker said it now expects 2020 revenue to jump more than 30 percent, up from an earlier forecast of more than 20 percent and marking the second quarter in a row it has lifted its outlook.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Manufacturing Megatrends:
Why the ‘New Normal’ Might Look Quite Familiar
https://www.materialise.com/en/blog/manufacturing-megatrends?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid-social&utm_campaign=MAN-E-BlogBoost&utm_term=GT-E-BlogBoost-ManufacturingMegatrends&utm_content=ad1-organicboost&fbclid=IwAR2jaUyf9MJ6fG4s_imlf-qNYPkFjTiSgLUwJ-mx8RJz7gbhkPXN_fnsQiI
Manufacturing has entered unchartered territory. Whatever the product you make or sector you serve. COVID-19 has triggered a health and economic crisis of such magnitude that we simply have no equivalent scenarios with which to compare.
A post-pandemic map does not exist; an easy-to-follow step-by-step guide to help reach a desired destination has not been written for this eventuality. Coupled with the only known — that further changes are inevitable, yet, highly unpredictable — it may well seem that navigating a clear route forward is a virtually impossible task.
But the truth is, there are landmarks that can help manufacturers plot that journey more accurately. COVID-19 hasn’t obscured them. In fact, it has made them all-the-more prominent.
A number of ‘megatrends’ that were driving decision making pre-pandemic are more relevant now than ever.
Stick with sustainability
Sustainable production. Last year that meant improving the environmental credentials of products and parts by making the manufacturing processes and supply chains behind them leaner and greener. Reducing wastage in every sense, from minimizing production scrap to eliminating energy waste by simplifying supply chains and optimizing transportation of goods.
Sustainability has become an incredibly practical business survival tactic.
Supercharging health and safety
Staff health and safety has always been a priority for manufacturers. During the pandemic, it’s fair to say that this has also been a significant challenge. Introducing social distancing and a wide range of COVID-associated protocols on top of standard measures to ensure worker wellbeing has been a tough task. But one the industry has risen to.
Nobody knows what the legacy of this period will be on manufacturing exactly, but I think this keen focus on health and safety is a very safe bet. Why? Because people power production. And with many workforces reduced or operating with adjusted shift patterns to minimize contact between colleagues, taking every precaution to ensure staff safety is key.
Digitalization won’t disappear
Industry 4.0 and the rise of digitalization has been one of the most dominant themes in manufacturing in recent history, primarily due to the significant efficiency gains on the table. Post-COVID, these potential efficiency gains can help manufacturers take important steps towards improving productivity and profitability. As a result, digitalization is here to stay at the top of priority ladders.
But digitalization also has much more to offer in terms of helping manufacturers seize new or rapidly evolving opportunities.
De-risking production and cutting costs
Let’s quickly reiterate my earlier point about digital spares here. There are inevitably tools and components that need to be replaced more often than others due to their function and associated wear. Switching to a model of 3D-printed digital spares in such cases avoids the supply chain risk and minimizes storage costs. It can also significantly limit damaging downtime. Small digital change, big business value.
Minimizing time-to-market, maximizing ROI
The digital-first nature of AM means that the time taken to advance from concept stage to low volume runs for acceptance testing can be dramatically shortened for more responsive production. Rapid-iteration design, encompassing immediate market feedback and customer collaboration, then allows for cost-effective fine-tuning to establish a “known sellable” that won’t require costly retrospective changes further down the line.
Short run strategy, simplified
What if you are not launching to market? What if you are a long-standing supplier of parts and products to established sectors?
Evolution not revolution
I started this post by saying that a post-pandemic map does not exist because we don’t know exactly where we are heading. We do know, however, that the ‘new normal’ in manufacturing is firmly focused on the ‘here and now’. Because it has to be. There’s no other choice.
That doesn’t require a revolution. Because revolutionary change is, by and large, focused on achieving a specific end goal. Instead what’s needed are guidance points manufacturers can keep sight of, and tools which support evolution at pace with the world around us.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Digitalization, distance working, and energy revolution are today as big changes as the automobile for a horseshoe maker
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/digitalization-distance-working-energy-revolution-today-szymanski
You know the saying that “a company culture eats a change strategy for breakfast”. This is to say that by nature, humans -and by extension human organizations – are reluctant to change.
Nevertheless, some changes are not optional. They are a business survival matter.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.elo.fi/elomedia/2021/milta-tyoelama-nayttaa-vuonna-2021-%E2%80%93-viisi-trendia?fbclid=IwAR2pY_l-wng6KFOf8BZSwrgDQwIZoNd6EkXY60bPnB2t-u7uwj57xpSpcZk
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amc-stock-price-day-traders-gamestop-blackberry-bed-bath-beyond-2021-1-1030008759
Tomi Engdahl says:
BofA warns GameStop stock could plunge 93% as weak earnings and skeptical turnaround plan will weigh on the business
https://trib.al/SKqRbDX
GameStop’s epic short-squeeze rally is not changing Bank of America’s mind on its long-term outlook.
AlphaCodingSkills says:
A nice article. Thanks for sharing.