What can we expect for the fast-moving telecommunications market this year?
There are many predictions. I started looking for information from Twelve 2012 Predictions For The Telecom Industry and Top 12 Hot Design Technologies for 2012 articles. Then I did some more research on what is happening on the field and decided to make my own list of what is expected this year. You can go to the original information sources by clicking the links to see where all this information comes from.
The global telecommunications services market will grow at a 4% rate in 2012 (was 7% in 2011).
Mobile growth does not stop. The number of global mobile subscriptions will pass the 6 billion mark in February. India will pass China to become the world’s largest mobile market in terms of subscriptions.
The mobile handset market will surpass the $200 billion mark. Smartphones are most heavily used by people under 45, and that age group increasingly sees the smartphone or tablet as a portal to Facebook and Twitter, among other social networks. The demand for the chips that generate and process that data in smartphones is increasing (sales of smartphone applications processors surged to $2.2 billion in the third quarter of 2011). Six Companies Want Supremacy On The Smartphones Chip Market! Qualcomm Look Out!
There is lots of competition on mobile OS marker, but I expect that thing continue pretty much as 2011 ended: Android continues to boom, RIM and Microsoft decline. Symbian’s future is uncertain although Symbian started and finished 2011 as the undisputed king of mobile OSs (33.59%). Windows Phone will try to get to market and Leaked Windows Phone Roadmap gives us a peek into the future. Java Micro Edition making a comeback according to the NetApplications report because large number of low-cost feature phones. The real mobile application battle lines of 2012 will be drawn across the landscape of HTML5.Tizen open source project tries to push to mobile Linux market (first version Q1 2012) with ideas from Meego, LiMo and WebOS. Cars and smartphones start to communicate using MirrorLink technology to allow new features.
Mobile campaigns to be hot in 2012 presidential race article tells that though mobile advertising not seen much on the campaign trail, mobile strategy is expected to be important for attracting younger voters. Social networks played an important role in the last U.S. presidential election, but the explosive growth in smartphone usage and the introduction of tablets could make or break the candidates for president in 2012. Expect to see specialized apps to help campaign groupies follow the candidates.
Text messaging has been very profitable business for mobile phone operators and making them lots of money. Text Messaging Is in Decline in Some Countries tell that all signs point to text messaging’s continuing its decline. There has been already decline in Finland, Hong Kong and Australia. The number of text messages sent by cellphone customers in USA is still growing, but that growth is gradually slowing, “SMS erosion” is expected to hit AT&T and Verizon in this year or next years. The fading allure of text messaging is most likely tied to the rise of alternative services, which allow customers to send messages free using a cellphone’s Internet connection.
EU politicians want to ban roaming charges according to Computer Sweden magazine article. If the proposal becomes law in the EU, it takes away slippery roaming charges for mobile data (could happen earliest at summer 2012, but I expect that it will take much more time). Roaming robbery to end – 2015 article tells that the goal is that the mobile roaming fees should be completely abolished the 2015th.
Near Field Communication (NFC) is becoming available in many mobile phones and new flexibility via organic materials can help in implementing NFC. NFC-enabled SIM cards are expected to become a worldwide standard. Electronic wallet in smartphones probably takes a step forward with this. Google, opened the game with Google Wallet service. According to research firm ABI Research estimates that in 2012 NFC phones is growing 24 million to 80 million units. There is still years to wait until mass market on NFC wallets starts. ABI Research estimates that there is 552 million NFC enabled devices at year 2016.
The 4G technology WiMax will see the beginning of its end in Asia. Like operators in other regions, Asian operators will opt for the rival 4G technology LTE instead.
The number of active (installed) PCs worldwide will pass the 2 billion mark. Broadband penetration continues to increase. Broadband penetration of the world’s population will pass the 10% mark globally. IPTV (Internet Protocol TV) penetration of the world’s population will pass the 1% mark. Broadband technologies are fundamentally transforming the way we live. UN wants two-thirds of the world online by 2015.
Today’s Cable Guy, Upgraded and Better-Dressed article tells that the cable guy is becoming sleeker and more sophisticated, just like the televisions and computers he installs. The nearly saturated marketplace means growth for cable companies must come from all the extras like high-speed Internet service, home security, digital recording devices and other high-tech upgrades.
Ethernet displaces proprietary field buses. As Ethernet displaces proprietary field buses to facilitate the operation of the digital factory. Ethernet switches are the ubiquitous building block of any intelligent network. Ethernet has also become the de facto networking technology in industrial automation even in mission-critical local networks. Modern Ethernet switches have added significant new functionality to Ethernet while decreasing port prices. Ethernet for Vehicles also becomes reality largely to serve the expected boom of camera-based applications in cars.
Operators’ growth will increasingly depend on their having a cloud computing strategy, an approach for the high-growth IT service market and a clear value proposition for the enterprise market. Data center technologies will be hot topic. 10GBase-T Technology will become technically and economically feasible interface option on data center servers. 10GBase-T Technology allows you to use RJ45 connectors and unshielded twisted pair cabling to provide 10Mbps, 100Mbps, 1Gbps, and 10Gbps data transmission, while being backward-compatible with prior generations.
40/100 Gbit/s Ethernet will be a hot topic. Carriers and datacenters have been clamoring for the technology to expand their core backbone networks. 2012–A Return to Normalcy and Pragmatic, Power Conscious 100G article mentions that in 2010 and 2011, the industry saw the first real roll-outs of 100G transport solutions based on Coherent Detection and FPGA-based Framers. In 2012 we’ll start to see 100G taking a bigger place in the build out of new and existing networks around the world. The initial deployments of 100G are clearly too costly and too power hungry to be widely deployed as the primary transport technology, so optical transport marketplace will move to much lower power and lower cost Direct Detection optical transport solutions. The average WDM link for 10G is dissipating about 3.5W per optical module, the average WDM link per 100G is dissipating about about 100W.
5 Major Changes Facing the Internet in 2012 article tells that 2012 is poised to go down in Internet history as one of the most significant 12-month periods from both a technical and policy perspective since the late 1990s. This year the Internet will face or can face several milestones: root servers may have a new operator, new company could operate the .com registry, up to 1000 new top-level domains will start being introduced, additional 10,000 Web sites will support IPv6 and Europe will run out of IPv4 addresses.
No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012. Yes, IPv4 addresses are running out, but a Y2K-style disaster/frenzy won’t be coming in 2012. Of course there’s a chance that panic will ensue when Europe’s RIPE hands out its last IPv4 addresses this summer, but ‘most understand that they can live without having to make any major investments immediately. Despite running out of IPv4 addresses we will be able to continue to use IPv4 techniques (Asia depleted all of its IPv4 address space already April 2011). ISP’s and hosting companies will not run out of IPs. This only means that the price per IP will start to slowly grow. Forward thinking enterprises can spend the year preparing for the new IPv6 protocol (USA is expected run out of addresses next year). Comcast has said it will offer production-quality IPv6 services across its nationwide network in 2012.
Operators start to pay more attention to the business opportunity of “M2M” (machine-to-machine connections). Investment and innovation in M2M (think smart energy meters and fleet trackers for logistics) will follow.
Smart Grid technologies include smart power management and architecture system components are already hot. Smart meter deployment on the rise globally. The global power utilities are the next mega-market moving from analog, standalone systems to digital networked technology. The opportunities are huge in everything from wireless components in smart meters to giant power electronics. First cut of some very basic framework standards have been drafted and lots of works needs to be done (ensure safety!). Forward-looking utilities and such vendors have now put business units and plans in place. IPv6 is seen as a needed technology in implementing Smart Grid communications. IPV6 has become a buzz word for smart grid firms.
You Will See A Ton Of Hype Around “The Internet Of Things” article tells that “The Internet Of Things” is a catchy term revolving around the idea that most everyday objects around us will be equipped with internet-collected electronics, and this will open up new applications. You Will See A Ton Of Hype Around “The Internet Of Things”, and it is hard to say if The Internet Of Things will be a huge business or a passing fad. NXP Semiconductor’s vision of Internet of Things starts with lightbulbs. Wireless sensor networks will get attention. EE Times article Top ten Embedded Internet articles for 2011 gives you links to articles that help you to catch on those topics.
Security issues were talked about lot on 2011 and I expect the discussion will continue actively during year 2012. There are still many existing security issues to fix and new issues will come up all the time.
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Tomi Engdahl says:
Gartner Identifies Top Vertical Industry Predictions for IT Organizations for 2012 and Beyond
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1887014
From Press Release:
Gartner’s annual Predicts research on industry trends titled “Top Industry Predicts 2012: Industries Face intensified Consumerization and Technology Disruption,”
For industry CIOs, senior business executives and IT leaders, navigating economic and market volatility will be a critical success factor in 2012 and beyond.
By 2016, most consumers in mature markets will consider in-vehicle Web access a key criterion in their automobile purchase.
By 2014, major national defaults in Europe will lead to the collapse of more than one-third of European banks.
By 2015, new, external social Web and cloud-based services will generate 25 percent of consumer-driven banking products and services.
By 2013, iPad penetration among pharma sales reps will reach 85 percent, then shift to applications that improve delivery and interaction tracking.
By 2016, the iPad will gain less than 50 percent of the K-12 market as CIOs favor devices that are deployed more readily.
By 2015, 30 percent of smart grid projects will leverage cloud services to address big data from converging technologies.
By 2015, 20 percent of integrated delivery systems will be investing in new healthcare-targeted customer relationship management (CRM) systems.
By 2014, 30 percent of U.S. private healthcare payers will acquire providers, forcing integration of application suites as delivery and finance merge.
By year-end 2014, at least one social network provider will become an insurance sales channel.
By 2016, more than 5 percent of searches will be integrated using mobile devices’ video/audio sensors instead of typed or spoken phrases.
Through 2015, 80 percent of multichannel implementations will fail because retailers will retain channel- and product-centric strategies.
By 2013, government financial sustainability will join cost containment as the top driver and constraint for government IT spending.
By 2015, context-aware promotions will comprise 10 percent of convenience item promotional activity among consumer goods manufacturers in developed markets.
Until 2015, ineffective IT/OT management will risk serious failures in more than 50 percent of enterprises, and critical failures in asset-dependent ones.
By 2014, the five largest PLM software providers will make social networking an integral part of their solution.
“The market, economic, demographic and technological environments that industries will face in 2012 will require them to be nimble in their operations and enterprise practices. Being agile and adopting new business practices will be imperative for survival in 2012.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Invest in mobile, not PC in 2012 say financial analysts
http://www.edn.com/article/520416-Invest_in_mobile_not_PC_in_2012_say_financial_analysts.php?cid=NL_Newsletter+-+Electronic+News+Today
Investment bank Canaccord Genuity has unveiled its top tech picks for 2012, with Qualcomm Inc and Apple Inc topping the list, while investors were warned to be wary of buying Intel Corp stock in the coming months.
Windows 8 tablets, set to launch in the second half of 2012 could see success in “certain markets” according to Canaccord, noting that this was particularly likely within the enterprise sector which sports a large install base of Microsoft enterprise software, but even then, the iPad is expected to continue its tablet market domination.
The bank said it expected to see continued strong sales of Apple’s iPhone and iPad, despite the upcoming launch of a slew of competing tablets from competitors in 2012. We believe Android tablets will continue to struggle given the limited number of apps designed specifically for tablet form factors,” said the firm’s analysts.
OEMs and the PC supply chain have been vigorously working to reduce pricing, said Canaccord, but with the CPU accounting for approximately 1/3 of the BOM, the most significant impact on pricing lies with the chipmaker. “Intel needs to reduce the processor platform price in order to stimulate demand,” said the bank in its report.
Tomi Engdahl says:
2012 Will Be Year of the Engineer
http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1381&doc_id=236938&cid=NL_Newsletters+-+DN+Daily
I’m optimistic that the new year will bring newfound respect for engineers, and not of the Rodney Dangerfield variety. I think we’re finally on the verge of getting some credit from the general public for the tough work we do.
The always-reliable Wikipedia defines an engineer as “a professional practitioner of engineering.” Gee, thanks, crowdsourcers. Dictionary.com says it’s a person “skilled in the design, construction, and use of engines or machines.” I guess that finally puts the EEs in their place.
Rules for Randomization
http://www.fpgagurus.edn.com/blog/fpga-gurus-blog/rules-randomization?cid=NL_Newsletter+-+Electronic+News+Today
For more than 20 years, networking and consumer devices have gotten away with a cheap excuse for random numbers. Random number generation has been an important element of secure communications and stochastic processes, but a true random number generator occupied a huge chunk of real estate until very recently.
At the end of 2011, IP Cores Inc. announced it had won contracts in both FPGA and ASIC fields for its True Random Number Generator core, the TRNG1.
Hot technologies: Looking ahead to 2012
http://www.edn.com/article/520299-Hot_technologies_Looking_ahead_to_2012.php
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.tietoviikko.fi/kaikki_uutiset/gartner+alensi+itennustettaan/a752379?s=r&wtm=tietoviikko/-09012012&
IT investments will increase globally by 3.7 per cent of about 2.98 trillion euros in 2012, predicts research firm Gartner .
The company, however, fell 4.6 percent from the previous forecast, and Western Europe, spending is expected to fall to around 0.7 per cent.
“We have reduced the forecast for the euro area, especially because of the uncertainty caused by a confusing situation,” says Gordon.
Tomi Engdahl says:
LG to launch Android phones with VMware virtualization on Verizon ‘in the coming months’
http://www.theverge.com/2012/1/8/2692696/lg-to-launch-android-phones-with-vmware-virtualization-on-verizon-in
LG’s here at CES 2012 showing off VMware virtual Android machines running on a Verizon Revolution — you can have a “personal” phone that you manage yourself, and then hit a button and click over to a totally sandboxed “work” phone that’s managed by your employer.
No one’s getting more specific than that, and we’re told it’ll be on new LG devices only
Tomi Engdahl says:
IEEE plugs into consumer power standards
http://eetimes.com/electronics-news/4234212/IEEE-plugs-into-consumer-power-standards
The IEEE announced at CES a broad effort to identify known and missing standards for delivering power and energy services to a wide variety of consumer and automotive electronics systems. “The PMA has set itself the goal of defining the next generation of protocols for smart power, and it has the backing to deliver on this promise,”
PMA will flesh out the suite of standards under the name Power 2.0
“The PMA aims to bring a layer of intelligence to the power distribution and consumption ecosystem,” said Vint Cerf, chief internet evangelist at Google. “This idea has also been recognized in the Smart Grid effort launched by the US Departments of Commerce and Energy,” he added.
“The PMA could open the door for managed power,” said Bruce Nordman, a researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “We can reinvent our electricity from the bottom-up, with nano-grids for a system architecture modeled on Internet principles so that a table with embedded wireless power could act as a nanogrid, and so can a car,” he added.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Samsung Merging Its Bada OS With Intel-Backed Tizen Project
http://www.forbes.com/sites/elizabethwoyke/2012/01/13/samsung-merging-its-bada-os-with-intel-backed-tizen-project/
“We have an effort that will merge bada and Tizen,” said Tae-Jin Kang, Senior Vice President of Samsung’s Contents Planning Team in an interview at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Kang said he didn’t know when the work would be complete but that it was already underway.
When the integration is finished, Tizen will support mobile applications written with bada’s SDK (software development kit). That support will include backwards compatibility for previously published bada apps.
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.edn.com/blog/Practical_Chip_Design/41559-EDA_industry_predictions_for_2012.php?cid=NL_Newsletter+-+EDN+Today
Linh Hong of Kilopass sees advances in mobile payment systems
He points out that KPMG says that mobile payments will be the most popular consumer application in 2012.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Windows 8 ARM devices won’t have the option to switch off Secure Boot
http://www.theverge.com/microsoft/2012/1/16/2710502/microsoft-secure-boot-windows-8-arm
Microsoft’s latest hardware certification requirements will make it tricky for Windows 8 ARM machines to boot into alternative operating systems. Microsoft is preventing ARM system builders from disabling a controversial Secure Boot feature that requires signed keys to allow operating systems to boot. Designed to prevent bootloader attacks for Windows 8, Secure Boot will also block other operating systems (including older versions of Windows) from booting correctly without assistance from an OEM.
Microsoft’s latest hardware requirements, published in December 2011, indicate that Secure Boot cannot be disabled for Windows 8 ARM systems. The requirements contradict Microsoft’s previous statement that the company “does not mandate or control the settings on PC firmware that control or enable secured boot from any operating system other than Windows.”
The Software Freedom Law Center has voiced its concern over Microsoft’s requirements, and the Free Software Foundation previously urged computer makers to implement an on-off switch for the Secure Boot feature — both are critical of Microsoft’s approach to Secure Boot. It’s not clear why Microsoft is treating ARM differently to x86
Tomi Engdahl says:
Global Risks 2012
Seventh Edition An Initiative of the Risk Response Network
http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2012/
World Economic Forum in collaboration
The World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network (RRN) was launched to provide private and public sector leaders with an independent, impartial platform to map, measure, monitor, manage and mitigate global risks. Our flagship research activity is this report.
Case 1: Seeds of Dystopia
Dystopia, the opposite of a utopia, describes a place where life is full of hardship and devoid of hope. Analysis of linkages across various global risks reveals a constellation of fiscal, demographic and societal risks signalling a dystopian future for much of humanity.
Case 2: How Safe are our Safeguards?
As the world grows increasingly complex and interdependent, the capacity to manage the systems that underpin our prosperity and safety is diminishing.
Case 3: The Dark Side of Connectivity
The impacts of crime, terrorism and war in the virtual world have yet to equal that of the physical world, but there is fear that this could change. Hyperconnectivity is a reality. With over five billion mobile phones coupled with internet connectivity and cloud-based applications, daily life is more vulnerable to cyber threats and digital disruptions.
50 Global Risks are listed on the report.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Flash drive meltdown fingered in Swedish IT blackout
Tieto’s EMC VNX5700 array sparked 5-day disarray – new claim
http://www.channelregister.co.uk/2012/01/16/tieto_vnx5700/
Tieto is a major IT services organisation across Scandinavia and the Nordic region
Its large customer base in Sweden means that when it had a five-day outage in November, it caused chaos to IT services across that country. The stoppage was caused by failures in an EMC storage array and compounded by an inadequate disaster recovery plan involving Networker tape backup files which could not be read. The circumstances are not clear and seemed to involve a VNX array with an upgrade to an NS480 (Celerra) system for flash, which is a logical nonsense.
What needs to be stressed is that Tieto’s DR processes were dreadfully inadequate and obviously untested for the eventuality of such a failure. Lawsuits over data loss and business interruptions at Tieto’s affected customers are bound to follow.
Tomi Engdahl says:
June 6 Is World IPv6 Day 2012: This Time For Keeps
http://tech.slashdot.org/story/12/01/18/0135244/june-6-is-world-ipv6-day-2012-this-time-for-keeps
“On 8 June 2011 many companies (big and small) enabled IPv6 to their main web sites by published AAAA records; 24 hours later, almost all of them disabled it after the test was done. This year, on June 6th, many of those same companies (Google, Bing, Facebook) will be enabling IPv6 again, but this time there won’t be any going back. In addition to content providers, several ISPs are also participating: Comcast, AT&T, XS4ALL, KDDI, and others. CDNs Akamai and Limelight are on board, as well as network equipment manufacturers Cisco and D-Link. Is the chicken-and-egg problem of IPv6 finally, slowly coming to an end?”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Tizen Gets Boost From Bada Merger
http://linux.slashdot.org/story/12/01/17/1858225/tizen-gets-boost-from-bada-merger
“As predicted last September, Samsung has announced plans to merge Tizen with its own Bada platform to create a new mobile OS that will fit well on low- and high-end smartphones. Last year, Bada had more global phone deployments than Windows Phone 7. The merger means each Linux-based platform will have access to more native- and HTML5-based apps.”
tomi says:
EDA industry predictions for 2012 article sees advances in mobile payment systems. The article points out that KPMG says that mobile payments will be the most popular consumer application in 2012.
http://www.edn.com/blog/Practical_Chip_Design/41559-EDA_industry_predictions_for_2012.php
If they are right, then I am amazed.
Tomi Engdahl says:
IPv6 on a microcontroller
http://www.eetimes.com/design/embedded/4024592/IPv6-on-a-microcontroller?Ecosystem=communications-design
One of the driving forces behind the move from IPv4 to IPv6 has been low-cost embedded devices, which are going online at an accelerating pace. But shoehorning the full IPv6 suite of protocols into a small 8-bit microcontroller is an extreme sport of the first order. Here are some tips from someone who’s done that successfully.
Tomi Engdahl says:
ITU designates LTE-Advanced as “True 4G”
http://www.extremetech.com/mobile/114953-itu-designates-lte-advanced-as-true-4g
Late last week, the ITU (International Telecommunications Union) finally agreed on which technologies qualify for the IMT-Advanced specification. The ITU has decided that LTE-Advanced (which is a collection of standards defined in upcoming UMTS Releases 9 and 10) and WirelessMAN-Advanced (commonly known as WiMAX 2) both qualify and are officially designated as IMT-Advanced technologies.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Ten… IPTV set-top boxes
Bringing films from web to telly
http://www.reghardware.com/2012/01/24/ten_iptv_set_top_boxes/
IPTV means the delivery of TV shows and films over broadband. I
Nearly every new gadget can be connected to the internet. The smart TVs popularised by Samsung and others are the focus of this but you don’t need to shell out on a new telly – a cost-effective IPTV box can do it too.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Telly makers failing to turn punters on to smart TV
http://www.reghardware.com/2012/01/24/iptv_week_television_makers_failing_to_turn_consumers_on_to_smart_tv/
UK consumers aren’t yet turning on to the smart TV concept, pollster YouGov revealed today.
Even if smart TV ownership doesn’t increase, there’s clearly an interest in IPTV.
Games consoles to be most popular IPTV platform?
Tomi Engdahl says:
HP To Open Source WebOS
http://news.slashdot.org/story/12/01/25/2234254/hp-to-open-source-webos
having been announced just last month, is live today: open sourced webOS for all. While the actual main product which will be known as Open webOS 1.0 will not be released until September, they’ve already got the Enyo piece of the pie available today
Open webOS announced as HP’s open source mobile OS power move
http://www.slashgear.com/open-webos-announced-as-hps-open-source-mobile-os-power-move-25210755/
Enyo piece of the pie available today. This is the application framework that was first shown off on the HP TouchPad and is being released today with developer tools that work with it as Enyo 2.0.
Enyo will allow developers to create Open webOS applications that work browser independent, this meaning that WebKit will not be necessary, browsers like Google Chrome, Firefox, and more working in this environment. This will allow webOS move beyond the hardware it’s been reliant on thus far and allow it to work natively in any browser. This should, if HP has aimed correctly, allow the ecosystem to be built, rebuilt, and grow.
You can download Enyo right now from the brand new EnoJS.com
http://enyojs.com/
The whole project will be moving to the Apache 2.0 license wherever an yes, the rumors are true, switching to the standard Linux kernel.
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/26/visa_euro_mobile/
Visa will be launching a digital wallet this year, and expects to see half of Europe’s transactions being done on a mobile phone by 2020, but plastic cards are looking good too, according to Visa Europe’s Annual Report.
It’s no surprise that Visa is planning a 2012 launch; it has already announced that there will be a special Olympic handset with the wallet embedded, but eight years to get half of the 12 billion or so Visa payments onto mobile phones is an aggressive timetable to say the least.
Visa pushed out 30 million contactless cards in 2011, and expects to issue another 20 million in 2012. That puts 50 million in use across Europe, or in punters’ pockets – even if they’re not choosing to use them.
Card readers are steadily being updated to support contactless payments; all new readers support the pay-by-bonk tech so it’s just user reluctance (or ignorance) which is preventing more-widespread use.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Billions of net-ready boxes in homes by 2016
Will anyone still watch broadcast TV?
http://www.reghardware.com/2012/01/26/in_stat_says_billions_of_iptv_boxes_in_consumers_homes_by_2016/
Punters may not be turning to internet-connected smart TVs in their droves, but the near future looks set to be a bumper time for gadgets that bridge the gap between the net and ordinary HD TVs.
US market watcher NPD In-Stat reckons that there were some 256.8m devices – among them set-top boxes, games consoles, Blu-ray Disc players, and IPTV boxes like the Apple TV and Boxee Box – in folks’ homes around the world.
By 2016, that total will have jumped to 1.34 billion gadgets, a compound annual growth rate of 52.6 per cent.
Tomi Engdahl says:
EU: Time running out for web companies on ‘do not track’ system
Steely Neelie: Agree on it by June, or I’ll force one on you
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/01/27/time_running_out_for_do_not_track_system/
Internet companies have been urged to establish a final standardised system that will allow users to control their privacy settings across websites.
“Do-not-track today is still an aspiration rather than a reality,” Kroes said, according to the ZDNet report. “And that is why I have called for agreement on a do-not-track standard by June of this year. I am happy that work on this is proceeding in the World Wide Web Consortium. But we need to act fast to turn do-not-track into a reality for all web users”.
However, EU privacy rules that came into force last May state that storing and accessing information on users’ computers is only lawful “on condition that the subscriber or user concerned has given his or her consent, having been provided with clear and comprehensive information … about the purposes of the processing”. Consent must be unambiguous and be explicitly given.
Under the draft ‘do not track’ (DNT) plans unveiled by W3C, restrictions could be placed on publishers over their use of data to decide what content or adverts to show to users
Tomi Engdahl says:
First ‘Super Wi-Fi’ network goes live in North Carolina
New Hanover County becomes the first to utilize white space spectrum
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2012/012612-super-wifi-255383.html
Officials from New Hanover County, N.C., announced today that they had become the first in the United States to deploy a mobile data network on so-called “white spaces” spectrum that the Federal Communications Commission first authorized for unlicensed use in 2008.
“Super Wi-Fi” is essentially a buzzword created by the FCC to describe mobile data networks that run over the white spaces spectrum.
Television “white spaces” are pieces of unlicensed spectrum that are currently unused by television stations on the VHF and UHF frequency bands
In 2008, the FCC, then headed by former Chairman Kevin Martin, voted to let carriers and other vendors deploy devices in white space spectrum that operates unlicensed at powers of 100 milliwatts, as well as on white space channels adjacent to existing television stations at powers of up to 40 milliwatts.
Tomi Engdahl says:
8 Mobile Trends For Small Businesses To Watch In 2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bo-fishback/mobile-trends-small-businesses-_b_1234524.html
1. Explosive Tablet Growth
2. Mobile Search Explosion
3. Mobile Marketing Becomes a Must
4. The App Debate Continues
5. Less “Black Box.” More “Data-Driven.”
6. The Maturation of Mobile Payments
7. More Watching… on Mobile
8. Facebook + Mobile Advertising
Tomi Engdahl says:
As Smartphones Get Smarter, You May Get Healthier: How mHealth Can Bring Cheaper Health Care To All
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/162/health-industry-smartphones-tablets?cid=NL_UBM+Electronics
Smartphones and tablets are transforming the future of health care. Can we really trust them to save lives?
By creating an app and attachment for the popular smartphone, Raskar could tap into a huge existing user base and skirt millions in distribution and manufacturing costs. The result: a plastic clip-on eyepiece that uses an on-screen visual test to determine a patient’s “refractive error” (a number doctors then use to dole out prescriptions). When his startup, EyeNetra, begins market testing later this year in Brazil, India, and Mexico–and eventually in the U.S.–its tech will deliver all the functionality of an optometrist’s costly machine for less than $30.
This is the thrilling, disruptive potential of “mHealth,” the rapidly growing business of using mobile technology in health care.
Tomi Engdahl says:
4g, now it comes – 48 phone models
http://www.tietoviikko.fi/kaikki_uutiset/4g+nyt+se+tulee++puhelinmalleja+jo+48/a762380
Mobile industry association GSA , the 4G networks operating in different phone models have already been 48, when a half years ago was only eight.
Commercial 4G network has been opened in 21 countries 49 pieces.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Feature Phones Now More Profitable Than Mid-tier Smartphones
http://www.forbes.com/sites/terokuittinen/2012/01/27/feature-phones-now-more-profitable-than-mid-tier-smartphones/
For many handset vendors, the world has turned upside down. Nokia‘s $40 feature phones are vastly more profitable than Sony Ericsson‘s $200 Android models. This is not how the smartphone revolution was supposed to turn out.
The latest handset industry reports reveal a market still characterized by exceptional smartphone growth – and deep trouble for most vendors.
Partly because its main rivals have stopped product development, Nokia is now eking out 13% operating margins in the much-maligned feature phone segment.
The feature phone market is shrinking – but it isn’t the sort of charnel house that the mid-tier smartphone market is turning into.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Sorting out 4G: Are we there yet?
http://www.edn.com/article/520722-Sorting_out_4G_Are_we_there_yet_.php?cid=NL_UBM+Electronics
Can we achieve the performance levels of the IMT-Advanced global standard for international mobile telecommunications?
Tomi Engdahl says:
Slideshow: Plant Safety Takes Center Stage in Factory Automation
http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1386&doc_id=237639
The trend toward safety networks aboard Ethernet has continued to grow significantly. It is now getting integrated into the control network, and safety devices and safety systems are becoming more compact, easier to program, and, in many cases, more cost-effective.
Integrated safety comes with a number of benefits, many of which are highlighted in the slideshow
below. Safety standards can be integrated within the system, including those that validate the system to meet regulations such as the recent European machinery directive. These often require validation that can be programmed into the safety software.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Nokia design chief hints at Lumia phones with NFC and wireless charging
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/jan/31/nokia-lumia-phone-nfc-marko-ahtisaari
Nokia is working on a Windows Phone model that incorporates NFC (Near Field Communications) technology to connect to external accessories – and is even considering versions with wireless charging, its design chief has indicated in an exclusive interview.
Tomi Engdahl says:
iPhone 5 Could Be Game-Changer For Mobile Payments
Some developers are betting the next Apple iPhone will have NFC capability and pave the way for mobile payment technology to finally take off.
http://informationweek.com/news/mobility/smart_phones/232500805
Mastercard/Paypass to be NFC partner with Apple on iPhone 5?
http://9to5mac.com/2012/01/30/mastercardpaypass-to-be-nfc-partner-with-apple-on-iphone-5/
We had some time to talk to a well-connected developer at Macworld who was building an app that— among other capabilities— includes NFC reading for the purpose of mobile transactions. We were obviously curious why they would do that, noting that third party NFC readers for iPhone were not popular (aside from the recently announced Moneto, above). The developer told us that he had no hardware knowledge, but he had spoken to Apple iOS engineers on multiple occasions, and they are “heavy into NFC.”
I asked how confident he was, and he said, “Enough to bet the app development on.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
First: Apple’s rank in mobile phone profitability and revenues
http://www.asymco.com/2012/02/03/first-apples-rank-in-mobile-phone-profitability-and-revenues/
Apple reached 75% of profit share, nearly 40% of revenue share and 9% of units share.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Inside a cellular femtocell
The solution to smartphone data traffic is a problem for femto-basestation designers.
http://www.edn.com/article/458122-Inside_a_cellular_femtocell.php?cid=NL_UBM+Electronics
-service providers are trying to shore up their service by selling femtocells to customers. These little boxes have to sell for at most a few hundred dollars and be both user-installed and self-configuring. And they must provide most of the functions of a full cellular base station. On power-up, the femtocell configures itself to take advantage of the most available radio frequencies at its current location, establishes an IPsec (Internet Protocol-security) connection through the user’s Wi-Fi or wired Ethernet back to the carrier’s femtocell gateway, and checks itself into the carrier’s wireless network.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Finland expects LTE phones
http://www.3t.fi/artikkeli/uutiset/teknologia/suomi_odottaa_lte_puhelimia
Finnish Internet users have access to the largest cities to use for high-speed 4G broadband connections. This year the 4G network population coverage is expected to reach 40-50 per cent, or thereabouts.
Finland’s available online is a 4G-sticks, but not the actual LTE phones.
In Finland, 4G subscriptions are marketed at present usually a monthly charge of € 40. (€ 20 with limited speed)
In the United States the situation is different, where the phones are already sold widely. Also, Nokia’s phones, Windows-LTE Model 900 Snow is coming specifically for First American 4G networks.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Nokia says goodbye to Hello
http://www.nfcworld.com/2012/02/06/312946/nokia-says-goodbye-to-hello/
A description of a new NFC service from Nokia which briefly appeared on the Nokia Conversations blog on Friday was “just a ‘humoristic’ test post which went accidentally live for a few moments,” a spokesman for the handset maker has told NFC World.
Nokia Hello was described as allowing users to exchange a range of greetings such as ‘Good morning’, ‘Good afternoon’ and even to pass on tea and coffee preferences via NFC
Tomi Engdahl says:
IDC says Apple finished 2011 on top of the Smartphone world, here are the numbers
http://9to5mac.com/2012/02/06/idc-says-apple-finished-2011-on-top-of-the-smartphone-world-here-are-the-numbers/
Analytics firm IDC just released a report covering the top five smartphone vendors by shipments and market share for Q4 2011.
Tomi Engdahl says:
London Olympics could break the internet
Government warns about increased traffic
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2144026/london-olympics-break-internet
THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT is warning people to prepare for communications breakdowns during the upcoming Olympic Games in London.
“It is possible that internet services may be slower during the Games (PDF) or in very severe cases there may be drop outs due to an increased number of people accessing the internet,” it warns.
It adds a similar warning about mobile communications, which are also likely to be under strain, according to the document. Again it warns that communications might be disrupted or slowed down.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Since 2009, Mobile Internet Usage Has Doubled Every Year
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/since_2009_mobile_internet_usage_has_doubled_every.php
The growth of the mobile Web is on a steady rise. While pundits throw around words like “explosive” and “outrageous” the more precise word is probably “consistent.”
Since 2009, the rate of mobile Internet use has consistently doubled every year.
While Nokia is the global leader, the strength of Apple is clear.
In North America, Apple has an astonishing lead in mobile Internet use, with 59.11%.
Outside of OEM share, one thing is clear: the mobile Internet is changing the way people access information. If history holds true, then more than one in every six Internet users in the world will be accessing the Web through cellphones by Jan. 2013.
Tomi Engdahl says:
The iPhone is a nightmare for carriers
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/08/technology/iphone_carrier_subsidy/
The iPhone may be great for consumers, but takes a nasty toll on wireless carriers’ bottom line.
The price of Apple’s iconic smartphone is heavily discounted by carriers. Those subsidies almost single-handedly devastate profit margins for Verizon, AT&T and Sprint.
After selling nearly 2 million iPhones last quarter, Sprint’s adjusted wireless margin fell to 9.5%, down from 16% a year ago. The company said Wednesday morning that its margin was significantly lower than it would have been without the iPhone subsidy.
Carriers’ financials were particularly bad last quarter, after Apple had its biggest product launch ever with the iPhone 4S.
No. 1 reason why customers had left Sprint prior to October was because it had no iPhone.
“It comes down to, ‘Do you want to be with them or bet against them?’” he said. “Apple is arguably the best global brand in the tech space.”
“The iPhone in the long term will turn out be profitable for carriers once they raise their price points,” said Samir Sakpal, analyst at Frost & Sullivan.
Tomi Engdahl says:
The average person looks at their phone 150 times a day
http://www.textually.org/textually/archives/2012/02/030229.htm
Excerpts from Tomi Ahonen talk at the Mobile Web Africa conference in Johannesburg last Thursday
– Also, mobile device users are addicted to their devices. Nokia reported at MindTrek 2010 that the average person looks at their phone 150 times a day, or once every six-and-a-half minutes of every waking hour.
– In Africa, it’s 82 times a day, according to Young and Rubicam in its Mobile Mania Report published in April 2011 — thus, even, in Africa mobile users check their devices on average every 12 minutes.
Tomi Engdahl says:
TI unveils ZigBee Smart Energy 2.0 SoC
http://m2mworldnews.com/2012/01/25/56001-ti-unveils-zigbee-smart-energy-2-0-soc/
The SE2.0 SoC has an integrated ARM Cortex-M3 processor, memory, and 802.15.4g radio and is tailored for Smart Grid and remote sensor applications.
The CC2538 will support TI’s Z-Stack ZigBee protocol stack, which features full SE1.1 functionality. The SE2.0 profile is architected to interface with multiple TI PHYs, allowing the design of SE2.0 products that can run across ZigBee, Wi-Fi or power line networks including TI’s ZigBee processors (CC253x) and WiLink 6.0 solutions (WL127x).
Tomi Engdahl says:
All-IP Network Produces $100B Real Estate Windfall
http://tech.slashdot.org/story/12/02/12/0340214/all-ip-network-produces-100b-real-estate-windfall
Daniel Berniger writes that one of the unexpected consequences of AT&T’s transition to HD voice and all-IP networks is that the footprint of required network equipment will shrink by as much as 90 percent, translating into a $100 billion windfall as the global telecom giant starts emptying buildings and selling off the resulting real estate surplus. Since IP connections utilize logical address assignments, a single fiber can support an almost arbitrary number of end-user connections — so half a rack of VoIP network equipment replaces a room full of Class 4 and Class 5 circuit switching equipment, and equipment sheds replace the contents of entire buildings.
AT&T’s $100 Billion All-IP Network Real Estate Windfall, by Daniel Berninger
http://vcxc.org/att/
The VCXC – Voice Communication Exchange Committee – is a Washington, DC based startup nonprofit, modeled on the FCC’s Advisory Committee on Advanced Television Service.
The global telecom transition to HD voice and all-IP networks shrinks the footprint of required network equipment by as much as 90 percent. This liberation of floor space translate the $25 billion “buildings” line item on AT&T’s balance sheet into a $100 billion windfall.
IP-IP interconnects allow AT&T to consolidate the vast majority of the company’s 5000 central offices into a handful of hub data centers. Comcast’s all-IP network supports 10 million Digital Voice customers from five data centers.
AT&T proposed a date certain PSTN retirement in a FCC filing on December 21, 2009. The filing and media coverage at the time focused on the move from wireline to wireless networks as well as the operational efficiencies of the converged all-IP network necessary to support broadband. The all-IP network promises to dramatically reduce the $3.5bn AT&T spends monthly to operate its network, but the cost of new equipment and price competition prevent much of the benefit from becoming profit. The bulk of the upside comes through divesting the resulting real estate surplus or as much as $20 billion each year from 2013 to 2018. AT&T can even follow France Telecom’s example and accelerate the benefits through private equity deals.
Embracing all-IP networks represents the only option allowing AT&T to compete with over-the-top services even without the real estate windfall. The main questions owe to the unwinding of the legacy regulations necessary to retire circuit switched network elements.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Foursquare adds NFC support for check-ins
http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/25906-foursquare-adds-nfc-support-for-check-ins
Foursquare, the highly-popular geolocation check-in app for smartphones and tablets, received an interesting update over the weekend that now lets Android 4.0 users with NFC-enabled smartphones to share “Lists” and “Venues” they’ve visited by simply tapping phones. In addition, it is now possible for said users to tap phones together to initiate / accept Foursquare friend requests or tap against an NFC-enabled poster to check-in at local venues.
As with many emerging wireless technologies, it usually takes the two biggest competitors in the field to create any permanent disruption in the industry. Near-Field Communication is currently limited to the Galaxy Nexus and a line of upcoming Android 4.0 smartphones and (possibly) tablets. On the other hand, we are confident that Apple’s fifth-gen iPhone will embrace NFC and that’s the point where we expect widespread competition between apps other than Foursquare will really take off in the NFC space.
Tomi Engdahl says:
TI Announces WiLink 8 Family – WiFi, GNSS, NFC, BT, and FM Combo Chip
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5532/ti-announces-wilink-8-family-wifi-gnss-nfc-bt-and-fm-combo-chip
WiLink 8 adds support for GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System – GPS + GLONASS) and NFC in addition to WiFi, Bluetooth, and FM receive/transmit like we’ve seen in WiLink 7 in a number of devices.
Integrated GNSS support is also very interesting, as for a while now Qualcomm has been the only player I’ve seen offering smartphone-tailored GNSS receiver with support for GPS and Russia’s GLONASS constellation in newer SoCs and basebands.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Get Ready for 1 Billion Smartphones by 2016, Forrester Says
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/13/get-ready-for-1-billion-smartphones-by-2016-forrester-says/
In just four years, one billion people will own smartphones, many of whom will be professionals taking these devices to work, says Forrester, a research company. And because of that, businesses need to think big about how to use mobile products to engage with customers, the company says.
It estimated that by 2016, 350 million workers will use smartphones — 200 million of whom will take their own devices to the workplace. By that year, consumer spending in the mobile app market will amount to $56 billion, and business spending on mobile projects will have doubled, the study found.
With the explosive growth of mobile use among consumers, businesses need to think beyond making versions of their Web sites for small smartphone screens, said Ted Schadler, a principal analyst at Forrester and an author of the study.
“Mobile is the new face of engagement,” Mr. Schadler said. “Businesses should stop thinking about it as a small Web site on a tiny computer, and start thinking about mobile as being deeply embedded systems of engagement. That turns out to have huge implications.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel, Nvidia to showcase latest technologies at MWC 2012
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120210PD212.html
At MWC 2012, Intel is expected to showcase Lenovo’s K800 smartphone that features its Atom Z2460 processor and Google’s Android operating system. The smartphone is expected to launch in China in the second quarter
Intel is also expected to showcase its 32nm Clover Trail-based Atom processors designed for tablet PCs and hybrid machines with support for Windows 8.
Nvidia is expected to push its quad-core Tegra 3 processor at the show to rival Qualcomm
Tomi Engdahl says:
Download bots were the “well-known secret” of the app ecosystem
http://www.insidemobileapps.com/2012/02/14/download-bots-were-the-well-known-secret-of-the-app-ecosystem/
It’s remarkable how widely-known the phenomenon of fraudulent download bots was throughout the iOS developer community. Essentially, bots or automated programs have been used for well over a year to download apps until they reach the top of the charts where they can be seen by real users.
Most every large player knew about them, but I could never definitively prove their existence because most developers clammed up or said they would never touch the stuff.
“We were approached by these services many months ago,” said Micah Adler, the company’s chief executive. “It was presented as an ad network, but it became obvious to us that users weren’t even launching the app. So we stopped using it after that.”
He added, “It’s been this well-known secret in the ecosystem.”
A few of the best-known mobile game developers acknowledged that their high chart rankings may have partially relied on downloads by bots.
COMMENT:
it is quite interesting to observe that some companies involved with incentivized downloads are actually explaining what’s wrong with the current system.
The current mobile ad ecosystem is a mess with lots of companies providing services that create artificial growth based on incentive, wrong promises and more…bots is just a small visible part of it.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Enter the Phablet: A History of Phone-Tablet Hybrids
http://www.pcmag.com/slideshow/story/294004/enter-the-phablet-a-history-of-phone-tablet-hybrids
Samsung’s Galaxy Note is coming to the U.S. on AT&T on February 19, and the “phablet”—that’s part phone, part tablet—has already sold more than a million units worldwide.
The Galaxy Note isn’t unique, though. For years now, mobile phone companies have been trying to bridge the gap between phones and tablets.
How do you define a “phablet?” With the Galaxy Note as the defining product in the field, I’m going with a device that has voice calling capability out of the box, cellular connectivity, and a screen size of at least 5, but less than 7 inches.
Tomi Engdahl says:
AT&T’s data traffic is actually doubling annually
http://gigaom.com/mobile/atts-data-traffic-is-actually-doubling-annually/
AT&T is now claiming on its Innovation Space blog that its mobile data traffic is doubling every year, rather than increasing by the more modest 40 percent annual rate it detailed in recent investor and analyst calls. The distinction is important because the faster AT&T’s HSPA and LTE networks become overloaded, the more pressure it faces to use its reserve spectrum and find new sources of airwaves.
“But when the year-end numbers show a doubling of wireless data traffic from 2010 to 2011 – and you’ve seen at least a doubling every year since 2007 – the implications are profound.
Over the past five years, AT&T’s wireless data traffic has grown 20,000%.
The growth is now driven primarily by smartphones. ”
So is AT&T contradicting itself? No, it’s just looking at different sets of numbers.
AT&T confirmed that the 40 percent number cited by AT&T executives cited only factored in increases from existing users, not traffic produced from new subscribers, i.e., the typical AT&T smartphone customer increased his mobile data consumption by 40 percent over the last 12 months.
Despite those huge gains, AT&T’s data traffic is growing at a slower pace than the rest of the U.S. wireless industry.
Cisco Systems’ new Visual Networking Index projections, released Tuesday, found that mobile data traffic throughout the U.S. increased by 172 percent in 2011
Tomi Engdahl says:
Mobile internet devices to outnumber humans this year
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/15/cisco_mobile_data/
The number of mobile devices will outstrip the global population in 2012, according to Cisco’s latest Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast.
The company predicts that the number of mobile devices, including those for purely machine-to-machine contact, will pass the human population this year – and there will be over 10 billion by 2016. In terms of mobile data, Cisco is predicting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 per cent for the next five years, so that by 2016 the world’s mobile networks will carry 10 exabytes of data each month.
At the moment, the biggest mobile data consumers are laptops, and Cisco estimates this will continue until they are overtaken by smartphones in 2014.
The study predicts that by 2016, 4G (in whatever form) will account for just 6 per cent of mobile connections, but will be responsible for 36 per cent of the traffic
The bulk of this traffic is going to be video.
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2011–2016
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf