What can we expect for the fast-moving telecommunications market this year?
There are many predictions. I started looking for information from Twelve 2012 Predictions For The Telecom Industry and Top 12 Hot Design Technologies for 2012 articles. Then I did some more research on what is happening on the field and decided to make my own list of what is expected this year. You can go to the original information sources by clicking the links to see where all this information comes from.
The global telecommunications services market will grow at a 4% rate in 2012 (was 7% in 2011).
Mobile growth does not stop. The number of global mobile subscriptions will pass the 6 billion mark in February. India will pass China to become the world’s largest mobile market in terms of subscriptions.
The mobile handset market will surpass the $200 billion mark. Smartphones are most heavily used by people under 45, and that age group increasingly sees the smartphone or tablet as a portal to Facebook and Twitter, among other social networks. The demand for the chips that generate and process that data in smartphones is increasing (sales of smartphone applications processors surged to $2.2 billion in the third quarter of 2011). Six Companies Want Supremacy On The Smartphones Chip Market! Qualcomm Look Out!
There is lots of competition on mobile OS marker, but I expect that thing continue pretty much as 2011 ended: Android continues to boom, RIM and Microsoft decline. Symbian’s future is uncertain although Symbian started and finished 2011 as the undisputed king of mobile OSs (33.59%). Windows Phone will try to get to market and Leaked Windows Phone Roadmap gives us a peek into the future. Java Micro Edition making a comeback according to the NetApplications report because large number of low-cost feature phones. The real mobile application battle lines of 2012 will be drawn across the landscape of HTML5.Tizen open source project tries to push to mobile Linux market (first version Q1 2012) with ideas from Meego, LiMo and WebOS. Cars and smartphones start to communicate using MirrorLink technology to allow new features.
Mobile campaigns to be hot in 2012 presidential race article tells that though mobile advertising not seen much on the campaign trail, mobile strategy is expected to be important for attracting younger voters. Social networks played an important role in the last U.S. presidential election, but the explosive growth in smartphone usage and the introduction of tablets could make or break the candidates for president in 2012. Expect to see specialized apps to help campaign groupies follow the candidates.
Text messaging has been very profitable business for mobile phone operators and making them lots of money. Text Messaging Is in Decline in Some Countries tell that all signs point to text messaging’s continuing its decline. There has been already decline in Finland, Hong Kong and Australia. The number of text messages sent by cellphone customers in USA is still growing, but that growth is gradually slowing, “SMS erosion” is expected to hit AT&T and Verizon in this year or next years. The fading allure of text messaging is most likely tied to the rise of alternative services, which allow customers to send messages free using a cellphone’s Internet connection.
EU politicians want to ban roaming charges according to Computer Sweden magazine article. If the proposal becomes law in the EU, it takes away slippery roaming charges for mobile data (could happen earliest at summer 2012, but I expect that it will take much more time). Roaming robbery to end – 2015 article tells that the goal is that the mobile roaming fees should be completely abolished the 2015th.
Near Field Communication (NFC) is becoming available in many mobile phones and new flexibility via organic materials can help in implementing NFC. NFC-enabled SIM cards are expected to become a worldwide standard. Electronic wallet in smartphones probably takes a step forward with this. Google, opened the game with Google Wallet service. According to research firm ABI Research estimates that in 2012 NFC phones is growing 24 million to 80 million units. There is still years to wait until mass market on NFC wallets starts. ABI Research estimates that there is 552 million NFC enabled devices at year 2016.
The 4G technology WiMax will see the beginning of its end in Asia. Like operators in other regions, Asian operators will opt for the rival 4G technology LTE instead.
The number of active (installed) PCs worldwide will pass the 2 billion mark. Broadband penetration continues to increase. Broadband penetration of the world’s population will pass the 10% mark globally. IPTV (Internet Protocol TV) penetration of the world’s population will pass the 1% mark. Broadband technologies are fundamentally transforming the way we live. UN wants two-thirds of the world online by 2015.
Today’s Cable Guy, Upgraded and Better-Dressed article tells that the cable guy is becoming sleeker and more sophisticated, just like the televisions and computers he installs. The nearly saturated marketplace means growth for cable companies must come from all the extras like high-speed Internet service, home security, digital recording devices and other high-tech upgrades.
Ethernet displaces proprietary field buses. As Ethernet displaces proprietary field buses to facilitate the operation of the digital factory. Ethernet switches are the ubiquitous building block of any intelligent network. Ethernet has also become the de facto networking technology in industrial automation even in mission-critical local networks. Modern Ethernet switches have added significant new functionality to Ethernet while decreasing port prices. Ethernet for Vehicles also becomes reality largely to serve the expected boom of camera-based applications in cars.
Operators’ growth will increasingly depend on their having a cloud computing strategy, an approach for the high-growth IT service market and a clear value proposition for the enterprise market. Data center technologies will be hot topic. 10GBase-T Technology will become technically and economically feasible interface option on data center servers. 10GBase-T Technology allows you to use RJ45 connectors and unshielded twisted pair cabling to provide 10Mbps, 100Mbps, 1Gbps, and 10Gbps data transmission, while being backward-compatible with prior generations.
40/100 Gbit/s Ethernet will be a hot topic. Carriers and datacenters have been clamoring for the technology to expand their core backbone networks. 2012–A Return to Normalcy and Pragmatic, Power Conscious 100G article mentions that in 2010 and 2011, the industry saw the first real roll-outs of 100G transport solutions based on Coherent Detection and FPGA-based Framers. In 2012 we’ll start to see 100G taking a bigger place in the build out of new and existing networks around the world. The initial deployments of 100G are clearly too costly and too power hungry to be widely deployed as the primary transport technology, so optical transport marketplace will move to much lower power and lower cost Direct Detection optical transport solutions. The average WDM link for 10G is dissipating about 3.5W per optical module, the average WDM link per 100G is dissipating about about 100W.
5 Major Changes Facing the Internet in 2012 article tells that 2012 is poised to go down in Internet history as one of the most significant 12-month periods from both a technical and policy perspective since the late 1990s. This year the Internet will face or can face several milestones: root servers may have a new operator, new company could operate the .com registry, up to 1000 new top-level domains will start being introduced, additional 10,000 Web sites will support IPv6 and Europe will run out of IPv4 addresses.
No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012. Yes, IPv4 addresses are running out, but a Y2K-style disaster/frenzy won’t be coming in 2012. Of course there’s a chance that panic will ensue when Europe’s RIPE hands out its last IPv4 addresses this summer, but ‘most understand that they can live without having to make any major investments immediately. Despite running out of IPv4 addresses we will be able to continue to use IPv4 techniques (Asia depleted all of its IPv4 address space already April 2011). ISP’s and hosting companies will not run out of IPs. This only means that the price per IP will start to slowly grow. Forward thinking enterprises can spend the year preparing for the new IPv6 protocol (USA is expected run out of addresses next year). Comcast has said it will offer production-quality IPv6 services across its nationwide network in 2012.
Operators start to pay more attention to the business opportunity of “M2M” (machine-to-machine connections). Investment and innovation in M2M (think smart energy meters and fleet trackers for logistics) will follow.
Smart Grid technologies include smart power management and architecture system components are already hot. Smart meter deployment on the rise globally. The global power utilities are the next mega-market moving from analog, standalone systems to digital networked technology. The opportunities are huge in everything from wireless components in smart meters to giant power electronics. First cut of some very basic framework standards have been drafted and lots of works needs to be done (ensure safety!). Forward-looking utilities and such vendors have now put business units and plans in place. IPv6 is seen as a needed technology in implementing Smart Grid communications. IPV6 has become a buzz word for smart grid firms.
You Will See A Ton Of Hype Around “The Internet Of Things” article tells that “The Internet Of Things” is a catchy term revolving around the idea that most everyday objects around us will be equipped with internet-collected electronics, and this will open up new applications. You Will See A Ton Of Hype Around “The Internet Of Things”, and it is hard to say if The Internet Of Things will be a huge business or a passing fad. NXP Semiconductor’s vision of Internet of Things starts with lightbulbs. Wireless sensor networks will get attention. EE Times article Top ten Embedded Internet articles for 2011 gives you links to articles that help you to catch on those topics.
Security issues were talked about lot on 2011 and I expect the discussion will continue actively during year 2012. There are still many existing security issues to fix and new issues will come up all the time.
802 Comments
Tomi Engdahl says:
Updates on mobile broadband cause television blackout in Finland – the audience pays their problems by themselves
http://yle.fi/uutiset/laajakaistapaivitykset_pimentavat_televisioita_-_katsoja_maksaa_ongelmansa_itse/6416382
The new high-tech installations are blacked out number of antenna TV sets across the country. TVs Datame interferes with the new technology, the technology Freezes Elisa’s cable network in Jyväskylä, Finland in early December. Previously, in turn, DNA HD technology interfered with the TV picture Ylivieskan direction.
Datame, the company acquired in November to a new base station CDMA technology. As a result, there were numerous problems around the country. Broadcasting technology consultancy problems could be seen soon.
The problem arises when the antenna connected to the TV is a convenient distance from the base station. A wide band signal is close to the TV frequencies. Problem to get rid of the filters. Although the problem is not self-inflicted, less than a hundred euros filter and its installation
Tomi Engdahl says:
Finnish Communications Regulatory Authority threatens to “act” if the TV interference there is no harmony
Mobile broadband operator Datame has updated its November-December, the 450 MHz frequency mobile broadband network using CDMA2000 technology. The change has caused problems in some places antenna television visibility.
Distraction is added a few tens of messages. Communications Executive Director Asta Sihvonen-Punkka finds it problematic that the broadband network changes cause problems with TV reception.
Promoted to the fall TV goes dark falls on consumers, who pay need is a signal filter of their own pockets.
“If the parties can not reach the necessary measures to eliminate the interference or some of the costs, or the amount of the distribution, Communications Regulatory Authority shall decide,” explains the Agency’s release.
Source: http://www.tietoviikko.fi/kaikki_uutiset/viestintavirasto+uhkaa+quotratkaista+asianquot+jos+tvhairioista+ei+synny+sopua/a865045?s=r&wtm=tietoviikko/-17122012&
Tomi Engdahl says:
Mobile devices bring back that old client-server feeling
It’s deja vu all over again
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/12/17/support_mobile_client/
If you see the phrase “any time, any place, anywhere” in relation to mobile access, and are tempted to point out the language redundancy (any place, anywhere), then you are probably not old enough to remember the birth of client-server in the late ’80s and early ’90s.
You will remember how liberating it all seemed.
Over the years, of course, the realisation dawned that client-server brought with it as many problems as it solved.
As support became more complicated and users discovered that an intelligent client with local storage meant they could create their own little offline empire, the overhead, costs and risks began to escalate.
Following a period of re-centralisation using Web-based architectures, it looks as if we are beginning to come full circle. When some of us old-timers see how the next generation is getting all excited about using mobile apps as front-ends for accessing services across the network, we can’t help noticing parallels with the past.
In the real world, the fast and reliable connectivity upon which this model depends just isn’t there in most countries at the moment – hence you quickly get back to local applications and offline data storage, with a heavy reliance on replication and synchronisation for more critical applications.
But at least HTML5 and cross-platform development and execution environments are now with us to save us from all of the historical overhead associated with client-side software. Or are they?
The debate continues to rage about whether HTML5 cuts it and whether cross-platform environments pose too much risk of lock-in, not to mention user interface compromises so those native apps keep accumulating.
The emergence of mobile device management and mobile application management solutions that allow us to monitor and control everything out there can help but the truth is that it is all pretty fluid at the moment.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Last week, Google made two unfortunate tricks for Nokia.
First, Google released its own mapping system from Apple iOS devices. Google map program is generally preferred over Nokia.
In the end of the week Google made another nasty trick to Nokia and all the Windows Phone operating system phones users: As part of the “winter cleaning” Google told to eliminate ExchangeSync Active support for the Gmail e-mail service. What does this mean? It means that the new Windows Phone phones are no longer after the end of january get constant push of Gmail messages in Windows Phone (update only every 15 minutes).
The Verge comment: Google “dropped a bomb in the shape of Gmail on Windows Phone.”
Microsoft has over a month to develop Gmail users a solution to the issue, but it’s not easy.
For many consumers it is a big problem that many of Google’s services work so badly Windows Phone devices compared to Android or iOS.
Source: http://m.tietoviikko.fi/Uutiset/Nokia+sai+kahdesti+korvilleen
Tomi Engdahl says:
U.S. Mobile-Ad Sales Expected to Nearly Triple This Year
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/12/17/u-s-mobile-ad-sales-expected-to-nearly-triple-this-year/
Advertisers are warming up to mobile advertising faster than expected, according to a new report released on Monday by eMarketer.
The research firm says it now expects U.S. mobile advertising to nearly triple this year to more than $4 billion, largely driven by stronger ad sales for Facebook Inc., Google Inc., and Twitter. In September, eMarketer predicted a more muted increase of 80%.
“For a long time advertisers have viewed the mobile marketplace as a very experimental medium,” said Clark Fredricksen, a vice president for communications at eMarketer. “That is steadily getting better.”
Mobile ad sales are improving as technology companies race to ramp up their offerings on smartphones to woo both consumers and advertisers.
Facebook
has now rolled out several new ad products for mobile, including ads that show users brands “liked” by friends.
For Google and Facebook, mobile is a must-win battleground. Though both companies still make the bulk of their money from the desktop, their consumers are spending more and more time on tablets and smartphones. As the migration from desktop to mobile continues, Google and Facebook must scramble to increase their mobile ad inventory– despite the limited real estate on smaller screens– and create new, compelling products for advertisers. The transition has been a tough one for Facebook, which highlighted the challenge in the run-up to its rocky initial public offering.
Tomi Engdahl says:
EU Considers Action Against Chinese Firms
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324677204578185401782043018.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_LEFTTopNews
BRUSSELS—European Union authorities will decide in the coming weeks and months whether to start a politically sensitive investigation into trade practices by the Chinese network-equipment manufacturers Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp., EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht said Monday.
An analysis prepared by the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, and seen by The Wall Street Journal says the two firms are clearly dumping their products onto the European market at unfairly low prices, using aid from the Chinese government that violates international trade rules.
The commission is continuing to gather information for a possible investigation while also discussing its concerns with Chinese authorities
Tomi Engdahl says:
Firefox operating system is intended for low-cost and mid-market smartphones. It is expected to be available in the next year, at least in ZTE’s phones.
You can now you can try using the Firefox operating system using Firefox browser on your computer: you need to install a free browser extension to do that.
Source: http://m.tietoviikko.fi/Uutiset/Mozillalta+uusi+Firefox+OS+-ohjelmistoalusta+puhelimiin++-+kokeile+ostamatta
Tomi Engdahl says:
RF DACs simplify power and space in downstream cable transmitter systems
http://www.edn.com/design/analog/4403455/Using-an-RF-DAC-to-simplify-demanding-power-and-space-requirements-in-downstream-cable-transmitter-systems
The amount of broadband data used over cable systems has grown tremendously over the last ten years. Since 2003, the number of subscribers to broadband data over cable services has increased at a compound annual growth rate approaching 14%
These services provide higher downstream and upstream bandwidths for heavy data users. The trend of increased data use shows no signs of slowing, as more and more consumers utilize Web-based services for video streaming, audio-streaming, and gaming.
Cable service providers are upgrading their distribution systems to stay ahead of the increased consumer demand for data.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Report: data caps just a “cash cow” for Internet providers
http://arstechnica.com/business/2012/12/report-data-caps-just-a-cash-cow-for-internet-providers/
Why do so many Americans now live with Internet data caps—and what are these caps doing to the future of broadband? Those are the questions posed by a new paper from the New America Foundation, which wants to shake up the lethargy that has descended over the data caps debate by pointing out just how odd the caps truly are. “Internet service and mobile providers appear to be one of the few industries that seek to discourage their customers from consuming more of their product,” write the paper’s authors. “The reason for this counterintuitive business model is that in the noncompetitive US marketplace, it is highly profitable.”
The arguments presented here aren’t novel, but they do act as a fine summation of the anti-cap position (and the report is only 13 pages, making it a quick read).
The truly curious thing about the entire debate has been the way in which caps have mostly remained steady for years, even as the price of delivering data has plunged. For example, paying for transit capacity at a New York Internet exchange costs 50 percent less now than it did just one year ago, and many major ISPs aren’t paying at all to exchange data thanks to peering. So why don’t prices seem to fall?
The authors of the new paper contend that all explanations are more or less hand-waving designed to disguise the fact that Internet providers are now raking in huge—in some cases, record—profit margins, without even the expense of building new networks.
The concern here isn’t just that Americans will spend too much for Internet access, but that they will also find themselves deterred from using hot new services thanks to concerns about data usage. Such limits could encourage users to adopt ISP’s own unlimited services for telephone and television, for instance, rather than those services delivered over the Internet. “Over the longer term,” was how it 2011 Credit Suisse presentation put it, “consumption based billing could reduce the attractiveness of over-the-top video options (e.g., Netflix and Hulu).” Critics have long speculated that this was in fact the ISP plan all along.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Samsung Displaces Nokia as Top Cellphone Brand in 2012 and Takes Decisive Smartphone Lead Over Apple
http://www.isuppli.com/Mobile-and-Wireless-Communications/News/Pages/Samsung-Displaces-Nokia-as-Top-CellphoneBrand-in-2012-and-Takes-Decisive-Smartphone-Lead-Over-Apple.aspx
Tomi Engdahl says:
Finnish telecommunications group Elisa’s Christmas sales has risen to the top eight favorite mobiles. Of these, almost all of them are smartphones.
The most popular phones have been in Apple’s iPhone 5, Samsung Galaxy S3 and S3 Galaxy mini, ZTE’s Android phone Blade 3 and Nokia Asha 311 and Lumia models 800, 900 and 920
Phones, only one is a basic phone: Nokia Asha 311
The proliferation of smart phones has led to Elisa by the fact that the operators have changed their subscriptions to meet the growing data use.
Source: http://www.itviikko.fi/uutiset/2012/12/19/joulun-hittipuhelimista-on-puolet-nokioita/201244070/7?rss=8
Tomi Engdahl says:
Android is failing by succeeding in China
http://www.extremetech.com/mobile/143585-android-is-failing-by-succeeding-in-china
By all accounts Google is riding high on the success of Android. More than three-quarters of all new phones shipped are running Google’s mobile operating system, and that gives Mountain View access to a ton of user data, and avenues to promote its services. However, Google’s business decisions over the last few years could be coming back to bite Android as China becomes the world’s largest mobile market. Even though Android is big in China, its benefit to Google is minimal.
Google’s Chinese Android problem is multifaceted, but most of the concerns stem from the search giant’s avoidance of mainland China.
If Android had been a force in mobile computing at the time, Google might have reconsidered. Dropping out of China doesn’t mean Android won’t continue to find its way into the hands of Chinese consumers — it just means Google won’t be involved. Plenty of companies are taking Android, which is open source, and modifying it to suit the Chinese market, sans Google.
Companies like Xiaomi have gone so far as to completely fork Android, building variants for use in China. As much as we get annoyed with OEM skins that change the experience and cause us grief, it’s nothing compared to what happens to Android in China.
You could make the argument that Android is open, and Google should have seen this coming, but I doubt the company expected an entire nation to take the Google out of Android.
Indeed, the overwhelming majority of Chinese Android handsets have not a hint of Google on them. Even search services are swapped out for Baidu, which powers search on 80% of Android handsets in the country.
In a darker twist, Google’s absence from the Chinese mobile market has resulted in dozens of replacement app and content stores appearing online to service Android users.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Linux-based mobile platforms hope for adoption in 2013, but smartphone vendors to keep watching
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20121220PD210.html
While Android and iOS together occupy about 85% of the global smartphone market, other mobile platforms, mainly Tizen, Open webOS, Firefox OS and Sailfish OS, hope to be adopted in 2013, but the main smartphone vendors seem unwilling to switch from Android and will keep an eye on the development of the alternative platforms, according to Taiwan-based handset supply chain makers.
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Tomi says:
Africa has more mobile phone users than the U.S. or E.U.
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/bulletin/africa-has-more-mobile-phone-users-than-the-us-or-eu/9053
Africa now has more than 650 million mobile phone subscribers. That’s more than either the United States or the European Union.
And it’s a market that has seen explosive growth. Since 2000, the mobile phone market has grown 40-fold, from 16.5 million, according to the World Bank.
The rise in ICT in Africa has also led to a growing number of tech hubs
Africa is rapidly becoming an ICT leader. Innovations that began in Africa – like dual SIM card mobile phones, or using mobile phones for remittance payments – are now spreading across the continent and beyond,”
Tomi says:
Telemedicine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telemedicine
Telemedicine is the use of telecommunication and information technologies in order to provide clinical health care at a distance. It helps eliminate distance barriers and can improve access to medical services that would often not be consistently available in distant rural communities. It is also used to save lives in critical care and emergency situations.
Telemedicine can be broken into three main categories: store-and-forward, remote monitoring and (real-time) interactive services.
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Tomi Engdahl says:
Ruby on Rails derails 240,000 sites with enormo security hole
Update NOW or give everyone shell access to your app server
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/10/ruby_on_rails_security_vuln/
Popular programming framework Ruby on Rails is affected by two critical security vulnerabilities – one allowing anyone to execute commands on the servers running affected web apps.
The bugs both involve the parsing and handling of data supplied by visitors to a Rails application.
“Ruby on Rails remote code execution confirmed: expect a Metasploit module in the next 4 to 12 hours. Patch your Rails apps,”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Not Cool, man: Potent new hacking toolkit costs crooks $10k a month
Blackhole gang snap up latest 0-days to build a better mousetrap
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/10/cool_exploit_kit/
The brains behind the Blackhole Exploit Kit is using profits from the hacking toolbox to buy up security exploits and create a far more formidable product.
The ubiquitous Blackhole kit is usually installed on compromised websites and uses vulnerabilities in web browsers and other software to inject malware into visitors’ PCs.
It is widely available through underground forums, and is affordable and reliable. Access to the technology is rented out for about $700 a quarter or $1,500 for a year, often bundled with web hosting fees of $500 a month, according to an investigation by Sophos.
Paunch, the main author of Blackhole, is now buying up code that exploits software security bugs from hackers and researchers to craft a far more powerful toolkit. Dubbed “Cool”, this toolbox is available at a hefty $10,000 a month and is linked to a recent wave of successful online attacks.
The Cool Exploit Kit pack first surfaced in October and was used to push ransomware, which typically demands a victim to pay a fee to unlock his or her compromised computer.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Europe’s cybercrime fighters get new digs… complete with Faraday room
Europol coppers set up shop in The Hague
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/01/11/eu_cybercrime_centre/
The EU’s new European Cybercrime Centre (EC3) will be inaugurated at Europol in The Hague later today.
The facility will act as the “focal point” in the EU’s fight against cybercrime, against both businesses and private citizens. The centre is designed to provide greater international co-ordination in the fight against online fraud, child abuse and other cybercrimes which can’t be effectively tackled by national police forces alone.
EC3 will act as a hub where crime-fighters can pool expertise and information, support criminal investigations and help develop and spread best practice. The centre is designed to draw on information from open sources, private industry, police and academia while acting as a knowledge base and training centre for national police forces in European member states. It will also work with industry to develop threat assessments.
It will work closely with the FBI and the US Secret service, in addition to other foreign agencies.
“EU citizens and businesses require an open, free and transparent cyberspace so we need to protect the online world just as we do the off-line world,”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Internet 2012 in number
http://royal.pingdom.com/2013/01/16/internet-2012-in-numbers/
There is so much happening on the Internet during a year that it’s impossible to capture it all in a blog post, but we’re going to give it a shot anyway. How many emails were sent during 2012? How many domains are there? What’s the most popular web browser? How many Internet users are there? These are some of the questions we’ll answer for you.
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