Telecom trends for 2012

802 Comments

1. April 25, 2012 at 11:45 am

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   The LTE Mobile Gaming Revolution
   http://spark.qualcomm.com/salon/lte-mobile-gaming-revolution

   Slow connections speeds cause two big problems for mobile gamers:

   1. Control responsiveness: Let’s say you’re flying a spaceship, and trying to shoot down an enemy ship. There’s a lag between when you press the Fire button and when your laser cannon fires. Even if the lag is a millisecond, it can ruin the multiplayer gaming experience.

   2. Opponent movement: There’s another lag before your laser hits another player’s ship and it blows up. The challenge with 3G, and even sometimes Wi-Fi, is that the other ship is flying faster than your network’s ability to register your laser shots.In a perfect gaming scenario, both player’s computers would be in perfect sync. But when your network lags, syncing your movements can be a challenge. Your enemy isn’t where its supposed to be, and you’re shooting at ghosts.

   LTE has the potential to solve both of these latency issues—and to revolutionize mobile gaming much as high-speed Internet revolutionized console and PC gaming.

   LTE has the potential to solve both of these latency issues—and to revolutionize mobile gaming much as high-speed Internet revolutionized console and PC gaming.

   Reply
2. April 25, 2012 at 2:31 pm

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Lava Xolo X900 Review – The First Intel Medfield Phone
   http://www.anandtech.com/show/5770/lava-xolo-x900-review-the-first-intel-medfield-phone

   For Intel, the road to their first real competitive smartphone SoC has been a long one.

   While Moorestown was never the success that Intel was hoping for, it paved the way for something that finally brings x86 both down to a place on the power-performance curve that until now has been dominated by ARM-powered SoCs, and includes all the things hanging off the edges that you need (ISP, encode, decode, integrated memory controller, etc), and it’s called Medfield. With Medfield, Intel finally has a real, bona fide SoC that is already in a number of devices shipping before the end of 2012.

   In both an attempt to prove that its Medfield platform is competitive enough to ship in actual smartphones, and speed up the process of getting the platform to market, Intel created its own smartphone Form Factor Reference Design (FFRD). While the act of making a reference device is wholly unsurprising since it’s analogous to Qualcomm’s MSM MDPs or even TI’s OMAP Blaze MDP, what is surprising is its polish and aim.

   The purpose and scope of this review is ambitious and really covers two things – both an overview of Intel’s Medfield platform built around the Atom Z2460 Penwell SoC, and a review of the Xolo X900 smartphone FFRD derivative itself.

   For Intel, answering the looming ARM threat is obviously hugely important for the future, and it recognizes that

   The fire was lit with the impending arrival of Windows On ARM (WOA), at which point the line between traditional ARM-dominated smartphone/tablet SoCs and a real desktop class compute platform will start getting blurry, fast.

   The Atom Z2460 in the X900 is a competent dual-core Cortex A9 competitor with competitive battery life and power draw, and no doubt Z2580 (its dual core, SGX544MP2 high end counterpart clearly targeted at Windows 8 platforms) will be equally as competitive against quad core A9s. If Intel’s goal with both Medfield and the X900 was to establish a foothold in the smartphone SoC space and demonstrate that it can indeed deliver x86 in a smaller form factor and lower power profile than ever before then it truly is mission accomplished.

   The x86 power myth is finally busted. While the X900 doesn’t lead in battery life, it’s competitive with the Galaxy S 2 and Galaxy Nexus. In terms of power efficiency, the phone is distinctly middle of the road – competitive with many of the OMAP 4 based devices on the market today.

   There is however a big difference between middle of the road and industry leading, which is really the next step that we need to see from Intel.

   The performance side is obviously even more competitive. Atom isn’t always industry leading in our tests, but the X900 is rarely more than a couple places away from the top (with the exception of GPU performance of course, but that’s a matter of licensing a different IP block in future versions). For a reference design that an Intel partner can just buy, barely customize, and ship – that’s not bad at all. Smartphone vendors spend a considerable amount of time building phones that perform well, Intel’s offer to internalize much of that can be either scary or amazing depending on who you’re talking to.

   The software compatibility story, like the concern over power consumption, is also a non-issue. The vast majority of apps we tried just worked, without any indication that we were running something intended for a different instruction set. There are still a few rough edges (e.g. Netflix), but if Intel is able to get things working this well at launch, the situation will only improve going forward.

   Ultimately Intel’s first smartphone is a foot in the door. It’s what many said couldn’t be done, and it’s here now. What it isn’t however is a flagship. To lead, Intel needs an updated Atom architecture

   On the one hand it’s a good thing that you can’t tell an Intel smartphone apart from one running an ARM based SoC, on the other hand it does nothing to actually sell the Intel experience.

   That’s what Intel needs to really build credibility in the smartphone space. A little was earned by getting this far, but its reputation will be made based on what happens next.

   Reply
3. April 26, 2012 at 11:01 am

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Samsung announces 1.4GHz Exynos 4 Quad processor for ‘next Galaxy smartphone’
   http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/25/2975835/samsung-14gz-exynos-4-quad-processor-next-galaxy

   Samsung apparently couldn’t wait for its big ‘Next Galaxy’ announcement on May 3rd to give us details on the chip that will power it. Dubbed the “Exynos 4 Quad,” the chip will run at 1.4GHz per core and is based on the ARM Cortex A9.

   The Exynos 4 Quad will be pin-to-pin compatible with the Exynos 4 Dual, which Samsung believes will make it easier for manufacturers to make the switch on upcoming phones. It will be capable of full 30fps 1080p video playback and recording

   Reply
4. April 26, 2012 at 11:32 am

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Broadcom aims to spread 100-Gbit Ethernet with single-chip solution
   http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4371652/Broadcom-aims-to-spread-100Gbit-Ethernet-with-single-chip-solution?Ecosystem=communications-design

   “By 2015, there will be twice as many devices connected to the Internet as there are people in the world, many of which will be streaming video,”

   Broadcom claims that by the end of 2012, the number of Internet-connected devices will exceed 7 billion. Over the next four years the majority of the content accessed from mobile devices will be high-bandwidth streaming video, according to Broadcom. What’s worse, application downloads will balloon to 47 billion per year, according to the firm.

   To meet this demand, Internet service providers are quickly adopting 100-gigabit-per-second Ethernet, which is estimated to grow at a rate of 170 percent over the next five years, according to Infonetics Research Inc. (Campbell, Calif.)

   Reply
5. April 26, 2012 at 2:29 pm

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Broadcom aims to spread 100-Gbit Ethernet with single-chip solution
   http://www.edn.com/article/521595-Broadcom_aims_to_spread_100_Gbit_Ethernet_with_single_chip_solution.php?cid=EDNToday_20120425

   Broadcom Corp Tuesday (April 24) announced its fourth-generation Ethernet network processor, which it claims is the industry’s first chip to use massive parallelism by virtue of its 64 packet-processing cores running at one gigahertz. Providing full-duplex 100Gbit per second performance, it can also be configured to provide a dozen 10-Gbit channels.

   Broadcom claims that by the end of 2012, the number of Internet-connected devices will exceed 7 billion.

   “By 2015, there will be twice as many devices connected to the Internet as there are people in the world, many of which will be streaming video,” said Dan Harding, senior director of marketing, infrastructure and networking at Broadcom. “As a result of this increasing demand for bandwidth, the core of the network is going to need upgrading to 100Gbit Ethernet over the next four years.”

   Reply
6. April 26, 2012 at 4:15 pm

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Analyst predictions canceled: Windows Phone it remains to third place

   Some of the analysts that predicted rapid rise in the Windows Phone markets last year, have changed their position.

   The research house IDC ’s and IHS Supplin analysts now believe that even if corporate IT administrators are convinced of how Windows Phone in the properties, is sitting in a consumer led to the workers, however, prefer to use another device.

   “We can say with certainty that the decision of managers in many companies no longer have the last word.”

   When Nokia and Microsoft told the co-operation plans last year, predicted by the research companies such as IDC, Gartner and iSuppli, the Windows Mobile operating system for mobile speeds up to second in 2015.

   IHS and IDC have changed their mind.

   Windows Phone in the future to remain a close third

   Source: http://www.tietoviikko.fi/msareena/msuutiset/kaikkiareenauutiset/analyytikko+peruutti+ennustuksensa+windows+phone+jaakin+kolmoseksi/a803643?s=r&wtm=tietoviikko/-26042012&

   Reply
7. April 26, 2012 at 8:45 pm

   von mir aus says:

   von mir aus…

   [...]Telecom trends for 2012 « Tomi Engdahl’s ePanorama blog[...]…

   Reply
8. April 27, 2012 at 11:23 am

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Samsung reports record $4.46b profit for Q1 2012, thanks to smartphones and tablet panels
   http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/26/2978672/samsung-reports-q1-2012-earnings-4-46b-profit-on-39-9b-revenue

   Samsung credits its IT & Mobile businesses for the strong showing, and specially mentioned its smartphone lineup: a press release says that “brisk sales of flagship Galaxy Note and Galaxy S II devices contributed to the company’s profitability.” As you’d expect, executives are quite bullish about smartphones to come, too, saying that they expect the upcoming “next Galaxy” device to be “our most successful smartphone ever” on an investor call. Later, a Samsung exec let the name of the phone slip out: it’s the Galaxy S III.

   Reply
9. April 27, 2012 at 3:11 pm

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   The internet of things and smart cities: Will an IBM computer be your next mayor?
   http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/127647-the-internet-of-things-and-smart-cities-will-an-ibm-computer-be-your-next-mayor

   When we think of computer networks, we think of routers and servers and fiber optic cables and laptops and smartphones — we think of the internet. In actuality, though, the visible internet is just the tip of the iceberg. There are secret military networks, and ad hoc wireless networks, and utility companies have sprawling, cellular networks the track everything from the health of oil pipelines and uranium enrichment machines through to the remaining capacity of septic tanks.

   At the moment, almost all of these networks are completely disconnected — but what if we connected them all to the internet? What if we extended the internet so that it wasn’t only populated by humans? What if we made an internet of things?

   Imagine if everything in the world was connected up to the same network? Every computer, every loaf of bread, every car, every traffic signal, every human. Imagine the possibilities of combining and correlating that data.

   Reply
10. April 27, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Strategy Analytics: Samsung Overtakes Nokia to Become World’s Largest Handset Vendor in Q1 2012
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/strategy-analytics-samsung-overtakes-nokia-to-become-worlds-largest-handset-vendor-in-q1-2012-2012-04-26

    According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, global handset shipments grew a modest 3 percent annually to reach 368 million units in the first quarter of 2012. Samsung was the star performer during the quarter, capturing a record 25 percent marketshare to become the world’s number one handset vendor for the first time ever.

    “As volumes contracted in key developed markets like Western Europe and North America, global handset shipments grew just 3 percent annually to reach 368.0 million units in Q1 2012. Samsung was the star performer, shipping 93.5 million handsets worldwide and capturing a record 25 percent marketshare. Five years after it captured the number-two spot from Motorola, Samsung has finally become the world’s largest handset vendor in volume terms.”

    Neil Mawston, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Nokia’s global handset shipments declined a huge 24 percent annually to 82.7 million units in Q1 2012. Volumes were squeezed at both ends, as low-end feature phone shipments in emerging markets stalled and high-end Microsoft Lumia smartphones were unable to offset the rapid decline of Nokia’s legacy Symbian business. Nokia was the world’s largest handset vendor between 1998 and 2011, for 14 years, before finally yielding top position to rival Samsung this quarter.”

    Reply
11. April 30, 2012 at 12:25 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    CIOs see Cisco gaining, Juniper in trials
    UBS survey maps CIO plans, observations for 2012
    http://www.networkworld.com/news/2012/042912-cios-see-cisco-gaining-juniper-258779.html?page=1

    The top three priorities for CIOs in 2012 are security, wireless LAN and Ethernet switching, according to a survey conducted by investment firm UBS.

    In querying 100 CIOs (60 in the United States and 40 in Europe), UBS found that not only were these topics high priorities, but by an even wider margin this quarter than in its previous surveys.

    “We view Cisco as more likely to preserve/ gain share in networking after it restructured through 2011, and this is consistent with the view of 80% of respondents,” UBS analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos stated in a report on the survey. “

    “The challenge for Juniper is that other competitors continue to enhance their offerings including Cisco, Brocade, Arista, Dell/Force10, and others, while Huawei has re-entered the enterprise market,” Theodosopoulos states.

    Huawei’s enterprise re-entry doesn’t scare Cisco, even though Cisco views Huawei, which competes on much lower price, as its toughest competitor and with the tinge of contempt.

    Reply
12. April 30, 2012 at 12:47 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    LG readies Dropbox, iCloud alternative
    http://www.reghardware.com/2012/04/30/lg_to_open_lg_cloud_dropbox_icloud_competitor_tomorrow/

    Samsung is expected to launch a cloud-based sync’n’store service for its smartphones soon, but arch-rival LG has got there ahead of it.

    LG’s cleverly named ‘LG Cloud’ – you see what it did there? – mixes Android, Windows and smart TV apps to auto-sync handset contents to the cloud and the user’s PC, Dropbox style.

    A neat touch is the video transcoding the service will provide. Playback device doesn’t support the uploaded movie file format or codec? No problem – LG’s servers will transcode in real time.

    Again like Apple’s iCloud, Dropbox, Microsoft’s SkyDrive and a host of others, LG Cloud will be offered as both a free and paid service.

    Reply
13. May 1, 2012 at 12:47 pm

    Octavia Schroy says:

    Real useful John. These infographics are really great in terms of getting the information out. Thanks for sharing.Sam recently posted..How to win in a sports

    Reply
14. May 2, 2012 at 11:19 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    1 in 5 young drivers play Draw Something behind the wheel
    http://recombu.com/cars/news/1-in-5-young-drivers-play-draw-something-behind-the-wheel.html

    Young drivers are so addicted to their smart phones, they’re even playing Draw Something or Angry Birds behind the wheel, a survey has found.

    ‘Digital’ car insurer Ingenie pulled 1,000 young drivers aged 17-25 away from Twitter momentarily to find out how they used their phones while driving. 18 per cent of the youth who have Draw Something on their handsets have played the game while driving, while 17 per cent of youngsters admit to playing Angry Birds behind the wheel.

    It gets worse. Up to a third of those surveyed admitted to checking Facebook while driving. Next time you see a kid in a Fiesta, he’s probably spending more time fiddling with his Internet than looking at the road ahead.

    They survey suggests it’s not just smart phones that are to blame — ordinary feature phones can prove an even bigger distraction. Over 40 per cent admitted to answering calls while driving without a hands-free set.

    Text messaging seems an even bigger distraction, with 44 per cent saying they’d sent a text, and a whopping 62 per cent admitting to having read a message whilst on the move.

    Reply
15. May 2, 2012 at 12:13 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    The Evolution of LTE TDD
    http://www.eetimes.com/design/communications-design/4371992/The-Evolution-of-LTE-TDD

    With the emergence of smart devices, people are downloading content in unprecedented volumes, putting stress on the network. As a result, wireless operators globally are facing increasing demand for high speed mobile broadband services. More and more users are flocking to such bandwidth-consuming applications as YouTube and Netflix, leaving operators searching for technology to stay ahead of this ever-growing demand.

    Many operators are looking to LTE as the de facto global standard for mobile broadband technology due to its cost savings, high spectral efficiency, mobility and interoperability. Even with LTE, however, operators see a need to offload their data traffic in order to provide users with wireline-like speed and capabilities. According to a recent report by Qualcomm, while LTE allows operators to use new, wider spectrum and complements existing 3G networks to handle even more mobile traffic, radio link improvement is fast approaching the theoretical limit and the spectrum available to operators is often limited and expensive.

    In a race for providing a wireline-like experience to wireless users, operators are not leaving any stone unturned.

    Just when operators are at a point where they have exhausted all possible data offload approaches, Time Division Duplex (TDD) in the form of LTE shines through. TDD has the potential to be positioned as a complementary solution to Frequency Division Duplex (FDD) networks, bringing additional capacity to congested areas, opening up a new way of data offload and backhaul for small cell deployments.

    There are two modes of operation for LTE technology: FDD and TDD, which are technically very similar and part of the same radio access specification. LTE FDD and TDD were both defined and introduced as part of the 3GPP specification in 2009 to make efficient use of paired and unpaired spectrum allocations over a common, core network architecture. The main differences are around the duplex method used.

    In both LTE FDD and LTE TDD, the transmitted signal is organized into subframes of one millisecond (ms) duration and 10 subframes constitute a radio frame. Each subframe normally consists of 14 orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) symbols (12 OFDM symbols in an extended cyclic prefix). Although the frame structure is, in most respects, the same for LTE FDD and LTE TDD, there are some differences between the two—most notably the use of special subframes in TDD. The subframes in TDD are allocated either for uplink (UL) or downlink (DL) transmission.

    In TDD operation, there is only a single carrier frequency, and UL and DL transmissions in the cell are always separated in time

    TDD makes it relatively easy to dynamically change the capacity ratio between UL and DL to reallocate time slots, which makes it well suited for today’s DL-heavy traffic pattern.

    Beyond the regional deployments of TD-SCDMA, TDD wasn’t deployed widely in 3G networks, but it has great potential in LTE. The operator community was originally hesitant to adopt this new technology due to its similarity to WiMAX, but has since discovered that TDD and FDD technologies can co-exist nicely and is now supportive of a new market with TDD LTE.

    FDD is still leading the game, however. Most commercial LTE networks are based on FDD because the FDD ecosystem is more mature and is still where most of the spectrum allocation is done. All major operators around the world are already acquiring wide bands of FDD spectrum for their 4G LTE networks, which is well suited for voice because it is inherently symmetric in the UL and DL. In addition, FDD can provide better coverage of a larger area due to the fixed DL/UL on different frequencies.

    Reply
16. May 2, 2012 at 4:22 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    The Ethernet Alliance is thinking fast
    Terabit speeds are round the corner
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/05/02/ethernet_alliance/

    Without Ethernet our networked world would cease to exist. Without Ethernet development the internet will choke.

    The Ethernet Alliance brings together vendors, including AT&T, Brocade, Cisco, Dell, NetApp, QLogic and many others, dedicated to the expansion of the Ethernet ecosystem that makes this networked world work.

    Kipp believes Ethernet is a marvel. “It’s the ubiquitous standard for local area networks, and as emerging applications push the innovation boundary you’d be hard-pressed to find one that doesn’t rely on Ethernet somewhere along the line. It’s truly the network technology of choice,” he says.

    “The internet is probably Ethernet’s greatest triumph. Every server that delivers content to the internet is networked via Ethernet.
    Scott G. Kipp

    “Society is moving to a new level of interconnectedness that’s built solidly upon the Ethernet ecosystem. Think about some of the applications that have become a permanent part of today’s technology mosaic – Facebook, Twitter, Skype – those technologies are served up via Ethernet.”

    At a time when the networking world is thinking practical thoughts about 40GbE and 100GbE, it is obvious to Ethernet technologists that, given the rapid data growth we are seeing, these speeds are not enough.

    Where does Kipp think the future of Ethernet lies?

    “It’s hard to express the full scope of where Ethernet will be in 20, ten or even just five years,” he says.

    “Cisco’s Visual Networking Index predicts that in 2015, we’ll see about a zettabyte of information running across the internet. That’s about a billion terabytes. The networking world is entering the ZB era. The storage world is already there, according to IDC’s Digital Universe Study.

    “We’re going to need more links at higher speed and we’re expecting 400GbE or Terabit Ethernet to be next.”

    “Parallel optics will be stepping stones to tomorrow’s generation of Ethernet speeds.”

    A few years ago, 100GbE would have seemed like fantasy. Today it is becoming reality.

    Terabit Ethernet will surely go the same route, from technology dream through standardisation and production to everyday reality.

    Reply
17. May 3, 2012 at 12:39 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    comScore Reports March 2012 U.S. Mobile Subscriber
    http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2012/5/comScore_Reports_March_2012_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share

    reporting key trends in the U.S. mobile phone industry during the three month average period ending March 2012. The study surveyed more than 30,000 U.S. mobile subscribers and found Samsung to be the top handset manufacturer overall with 26.0 percent market share. Google Android continued to grow its share in the U.S. smartphone market, accounting for 51 percent of smartphone subscribers, while Apple captured more than 30 percent.

    More than 106 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones during the three months ending in March, up 9 percent versus December. Google Android ranked as the top smartphone platform with 51 percent market share (up 3.7 percentage points). Apple’s share of the smartphone market increased 1.1 percentage points to 30.7 percent. RIM ranked third with 12.3 percent share, followed by Microsoft (3.9 percent) and Symbian (1.4 percent).

    Reply
18. May 3, 2012 at 3:15 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    RIM To Developers: We’ll Make Sure Your App Earns At Least $10K In Its First Year
    http://techcrunch.com/2012/05/01/rim-to-developers-well-make-sure-your-app-earns-at-least-10k-in-its-first-year/

    With the release of their BlackBerry 10 beta development tools and Dev Alpha devices earlier today, RIM has made it very clear that they want to build up as much developer love as possible before BlackBerry 10 officially launches.

    Alec Saunders, RIM’s VP of Developer Relations, revealed at BlackBerry World that RIM will guarantee developers of quality apps a minimum of $10,000 in annual earnings — if developers come in under the $10K mark during their first year, RIM will actually pay them the difference.

    Ah, but there’s a catch (isn’t there always?). In order to qualify for RIM’s generous offer, the apps in question must meet a strict new quality certification program whose standards have yet to be laid concretely laid out. One thing is known for sure though — once an app has been officially approved for sale in the App World and nabs that new certification, it has to generate at least $1,000 on its own before RIM swoops in and cuts the developer a check.

    Translation: the apps can’t completely suck.

    It may not be the most novel approach — hell, just look at Microsoft’s track record — but it certainly drives home their developer-focused point.

    Then again, with all of mud that’s been flung at RIM in the recent past, I can’t really blame for turning to payouts to make their platform a safer bet for developers.

    Reply
19. May 4, 2012 at 12:43 am

    Dione Kaing says:

    thanks for the information on your site I found it very useful . I will pass your link on
    See my own Site Decking Installation London

    Reply
20. May 6, 2012 at 6:34 pm

    Tomi says:

    Why Verizon Doesn’t Want You To Buy an iPhone
    http://apple.slashdot.org/story/12/05/05/1626206/why-verizon-doesnt-want-you-to-buy-an-iphone

    “Sascha Segan writes that although Verizon adamantly denies steering customers away from Apple’s iPhones in favor of 4G LTE-enabled Android devices, he is convinced that Verizon has a strong reason to push buyers away from the iPhone. ‘Here’s the problem,’ writes Segan. ‘Verizon has spent millions of dollars rolling out its massive LTE network’ but the carrier can’t easily add capacity on its old 3G network.

    Reply
21. May 7, 2012 at 10:11 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Is security becoming the next money flow service to telecom operators?

    In Finland telecom operator Elisa is already selling home security service
    http://www.elisa.fi/vahti/

    AT&T’s next business: Securing your home
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-12261_3-57428786/at-ts-next-business-securing-your-home/?part=rss&subj=news&tag=title

    The company has formed a new group that offers security monitoring services and the ability to remotely control your house using your phone.

    AT&T will finally make good on its promise to let consumers remotely control every facet of their home — from the thermostat to the door locks — through any smartphone, PC, or tablet.

    A day before the CTIA Wireless conference kicks off, AT&T said it would enter the home security and automation business in a big way. The company said it has formed a digital life services group to push these services, which will be available nationwide and work with any Internet connection.

    The creation of the group represents a completely new business for AT&T. Beyond offering Internet, phone, and television services to consumer, the company now wants to touch nearly every aspect of the home. The area plays into one of AT&T’s recent strengths and areas of focus: the use of non-conventional devices with a cellular or Internet connection.

    The home security and automation business is a burgeoning opportunity for a company looking for new sources of growth. It’s part of the broader push by carriers to expand into different businesses beyond traditional telephone or cell phone service, which have begun to show signs of maturing. AT&T isn’t the only one dabbling in this area; rival Verizon and the cable providers have also started offering similar services.

    “The home security market is the proverbial low hanging fruit as it has been a pretty stagnant market with little innovation over the years,” said Roger Entner, a consultant with Recon Analytics. “AT&T thinks they can shake things up.”

    “AT&T digital life will change the way people live, work and play — and meets a clear need in the market,” said Kevin Petersen, senior vice president of AT&T’s digital life busines

    AT&T plans to offer connected cameras, windows and door sensors, smoke, carbon monoxide, motion and glass-break sensors, door locks, thermostats, moisture detectors, and the ability to remotely turn off appliances. The devices are all hooked into the home’s broadband network, and can get commands from the homeowner’s iPad, Android smartphone, or other mobile device using a cellular network.

    Reply
22. May 7, 2012 at 10:20 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    AT&T Introduces Digital Life: IP-Based Home Automation And Security System With 24/7 Monitoring Centers
    http://techcrunch.com/2012/05/06/att-introduces-digital-life-ip-based-home-automation-and-security-system-with-247-monitoring-centers/?grcc=33333Z98ZtrendingZ0

    AT&T has just announced a new security and home-automation system called Digital Life, which will be an IP-based platform that allows users to monitor and detect activity throughout their house remotely, and “take action” (as AT&T put it) on devices like PCs, tablets, and smartphones.

    AT&T actually goes so far as to say “there are no capacity limits to the number and variety of devices [they] can connect to and integrate,” since it’s an all-digital system.

    Functions include access to automation, energy and water controls, and security systems. AT&T will thus be introducing a new branch called the Digital Life group, which will work in “AT&T owned-and-operated 24/7 security monitoring centers.”

    You’ll be able to “try before you buy”

    it’s clear that AT&T has high hopes for pushing itself into every corner of your life. They already have a major share of the pie when it comes to wireless subscribers in the US

    And AT&T wants access to your car, too.

    Reply
23. May 7, 2012 at 2:18 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    China shoots for 800 million web users by 2015
    Half a BILLION is not enough, apparently
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/05/07/china_800_million_web_users_2015/

    The Chinese government is hoping to close the country’s digital divide further by bringing a whopping 800 million of its citizens online by 2015, according to its latest pronouncement.

    The ‘internet development plan’ for 2011-2015 was unveiled on Friday by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xinhua reported.

    While the prediction sounds pretty impressive, 800 million would only account for around 57 per cent of the country’s vast population, of which 200 million are set to come from rural areas, the report claimed.

    Government officials have complained in the past that efforts to increase the nation’s online population and improve broadband speeds have been hampered by the sheer size of the country and the high cost of fibre optic cables.

    High infrastructure costs also mean that most Chinese web users pay considerably more for their broadband than those in other countries – three of four times that of users in the UK and US according to some estimates.

    That said, given China has already blasted past the 500m web user mark, getting 300m or so online in the next three years doesn’t seem overly ambitious.

    The report also repeated China’s target of generating 18 trillion yuan (£1.4tr) from e-commerce by 2015 and it’s certainly well on the way to achieving this goal.

    Xinhua said the MIIT report also announced plans to push 3G subscriptions past the 450m mark, predicting the country’s telecoms businesses would pull in revenues of 1.5 tr yuan by 2015.

    Although 450m seems a lot, it would be less than half the estimated one billion who own mobile phones in China. Analysts reckon at present that as many as 80 per cent of these subscribers are still on 2G (3G services have largely failed to meet consumer expectations).

    4G licenses still at least two years away in China

    Reply
24. May 8, 2012 at 8:51 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Nielsen: In the U.S., white men carry the dumbest phones
    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/07/nielsen-in-the-u-s-white-men-carry-the-dumbest-phones/

    FORTUNE — The move from so-called feature phones to smartphones continues apace.

    As of March 2012, 50.4% of U.S. mobile subscribers owned smartphones, up from 47.8% in December 2011, according to a Nielsen survey released Monday. Google’s (GOOG) Android was the most popular smartphone operating system (48.5%), while Apple (AAPL) was the No. 1 manufacturer (32%).

    No surprises there.

    It’s when the data are broken down by sex and ethnicity that things get interesting.

    Which leaves, I guess, older white men carrying around the bulk of the remaining dumb phones.

    Reply
25. May 8, 2012 at 10:06 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    IEEE approves revision of wireless LAN standard
    http://www.net-security.org/secworld.php?id=12876

    IEEE announced the publication of IEEE 802.11-2012, which defines the technology for the world’s premier wireless LAN products.

    The new IEEE 802.11-2012 revision has been expanded significantly by supporting devices and networks that are faster, more secure, while offering improved Quality of Service and, improved cellular network hand-off.

    The standard’s relevance continues to expand with the emergence of new applications, such as the smart grid, which augments the facility for electricity generation, distribution, delivery and consumption with a two-way, end-to-end network for communications and control.

    “IEEE 802.11 is obviously a standard of tremendous impact for developers and users of Wi-Fi-enabled devices, service providers, the global smart-grid community, manufacturers, healthcare workers and retail service providers around the world,” said Phil Solis, research director with ABI Research. “In the 15 years since the standard’s original publication, we’ve seen wireless networking evolve from a curiosity and nice-to-have capability to a must-have feature for doing business in a wide range of industries around the world. It’s a capability that today is expected to be embedded in almost any communications device, and it’s a service that’s expected to be available to employees and customers almost anywhere in the world.”

    In addition to incorporating various technical updates and enhancements, IEEE 802.11-2012 consolidates 10 amendments to the base standard that were approved since IEEE 802.11’s last full revision, in 2007. IEEE 802.11n, for example, defined MAC and PHY modifications to enable much higher throughputs, with a maximum of 600Mb/s; other amendments that have been incorporated into IEEE 802.11-2012 addressed direct-link setup, “fast roam,” radio resource measurement, operation in the 3650-3700MHz band, vehicular environments, mesh networking, security, broadcast/multicast and unicast data delivery, interworking with external networks and network management.

    “Every day, about two million products that contain IEEE 802.11-based technology for wireless communications are shipped around the world. “

    Reply
26. May 8, 2012 at 11:12 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Smartphones beat computers for Facebookers time on site
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57429653-93/smartphones-beat-computers-for-facebookers-time-on-site/

    A new study shows that the social-networking king also reigns in the mobile space, and its users are spending more and more time on the site via their cell phones.

    A new study released today by digital research company ComScore shows that the average U.S. Facebook mobile user spent more than seven hours perusing the site via cell phone in March and around six hours via the computer.

    A new study released today by digital research company ComScore shows that the average U.S. Facebook mobile user spent more than seven hours perusing the site via cell phone in March and around six hours via the computer.

    In December 2011, Facebook said that more than 425 million monthly active users accessed Facebook on a mobile device. This is roughly half of all of Facebook’s monthly active users.

    And, over the past year, Facebook executives have noted the increasing importance of mobile for the company’s growth, launching an initiative to get its app on all mobile devices, including smartphones, feature phones, and the Apple iPad.

    Other social networks also did well via mobile. Twitter users spent an average of almost two hours browsing on their phones for the month of March and just 20 minutes on the computer. Pinterest users spent an hour on the phone, Foursquare users spent 2.5 hours, and Tumblr readers browsed for a little over an hour.

    Reply
27. May 8, 2012 at 12:18 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Nielsen: Smartphones Used By 50.4% Of U.S. Consumers, Android 48.5% Of Them
    http://techcrunch.com/2012/05/07/nielsen-smartphones-used-by-50-4-of-u-s-consumers-android-48-5-of-them/

    Android continuing its domination in the space, accounting for 48.5 percent of all smartphone handsets.

    Apple is not a very close second, at 32 percent, but through that percentage it has remained the single-biggest smartphone handset brand.

    The 50.4 percentage of smartphones represents growth of about three percent since December 2011, when 47.8 percent of mobile consumers were using smartphones.

    Reply
28. May 8, 2012 at 12:21 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Amtrak Enlists iPhones as a Service Tool
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/07/technology/amtrak-to-use-iphones-to-streamline-service.html?pagewanted=all

    Old-school train conductors are finally ready to give up their hole punchers to try something new: the iPhone.

    Amtrak, the government-owned corporation that oversees the nation’s railroad train services, has been training conductors since November to use the Apple handset as an electronic ticket scanner on a few routes, including from Boston to Portland, Me., and San Jose, Calif., to Sacramento.

    By late summer, 1,700 conductors will be using the devices on Amtrak trains across the country, the company said.

    With the new system, passengers will be able to print tickets or load a special bar code on their smartphone screens for conductors to scan, and conductors will be able to keep track of passengers on board, Amtrak said.

    “You don’t even need to print the document and bring it with you,”

    Amtrak joins a growing number of businesses that are using mobile devices to improve operations. Some pilots are using iPads to replace flight manuals in the cockpit, a few police departments are experimenting with using iPhones to identify suspects, and doctors are using iPads to access patient records and X-ray charts.

    A digitized check-in process for trains seems long overdue in a world of online concert tickets and flight reservations.

    With the new iPhone-powered system, conductors can monitor passenger check-ins in real time. That will help them manage seating: if there are passengers who don’t show up, for example, it will be easier to fill empty seats with other passengers.

    “When it was all a manual system there was a lot of guesswork involved,”

    Each conductor’s iPhone is equipped with a case containing an extra battery and a bar-code scanner, and has a special app to scan tickets but also to do much more.

    For example, with the app, conductors can indicate to the engineer if a disabled person is getting on at a particular stop so that the train staff can be prepared to coordinate the track and the wheelchair lift.

    The app also allows conductors to report equipment failures, like broken toilet fixtures, to mechanics.

    The iPhone system cost Amtrak $7.5 million — $5.5 million for the software development and $2 million for the hardware, the company said.

    Reply
29. May 8, 2012 at 1:05 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Finally, it’s the year of IPv6!
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/05/08/ipv6_coming_next_month/

    One month from now, World IPv6 Launch Day with be upon us. Numerous online services will be enabling IPv6 and leaving it on. AAAA records will be published, and those of us with IPv6 enabled systems will start to use IPv6 preferentially to IPv4. But what does this all mean?

    For the short term at least, the truth is “not much”. Despite the trebling hype amongst the networking nerd community, World IPv6 Launch Day is set to be yet another day when the internet at large yawns, hits the snooze button and rolls over to go back to sleep. While IPv6 is unquestionably the inescapable future, the world at large isn’t in a particular hurry to get there.

    Most of the internet’s IP backbone providers will be rocking IPv6 on launch day. But the truth is, they’ve already been doing so for some time.

    Consumer and SME network equipment vendors however are functionally unrepresented. Even with the pair who have so far announced their support – Dlink and Cisco – you have to be quite choosy about which devices you buy. IPv6 support isn’t exactly top-notch across their product lines. In addition, most extant, deployed devices aren’t going to be receiving IPv6 firmware updates.

    According to Paessler, “IPv6 has not reached the layer below the tier 1 providers. Really serious networks, where they do backboning and all that…there may be a usage scenario. But organisations between 1 and 10,000 seats … they are not there yet.”

    Even among military networks and really large enterprises, usage is highly restricted. When considering both the raw statistics at his disposal as well as the paucity of IPv6 feature requests, Paessler believes “adoption of IPv6 will take years and years. Most users will stay IPv4 in their networks and they won’t move to IPv6 without pressure.”

    companies are waiting on vendor support.

    More importantly, transitioning to IPv6 is a pain. Companies aren’t ready to spend money on something that – in the short term at least – makes network configuration, security and maintenance significantly more complicated. This is especially true when there simply isn’t a real world incentive to do so yet.

    Reply
30. May 9, 2012 at 8:23 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Nano-SIM update: Apple design modified to fix concerns, standard will be decided this month
    http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/8/3007535/nano-sim-4ff-apple-modified-vote-mid-may

    The company tells us that the ETSI vote on the 4FF standard that had been delayed back in March is actually now underway. Voting began for ETSI members in mid-April and wraps up in mid-May, mere days away.

    The delay in the vote had been due largely to Nokia’s vocal displeasure in Apple’s design, saying in March that Apple explicitly violated ETSI’s design guidelines for 4FF — guidelines that specified that a nano-SIM should be shaped in such a way that it would be difficult or impossible for a customer to accidentally jam it into a micro-SIM slot. G&D noted to us that Apple’s design has now been modified: a small amount of plastic has been added around the edges of the electrical contacts, making the new nano-SIM just long enough so that it can’t be forced lengthwise into an incompatible socket. (The tradeoff, of course, is that the revised design is even less different than the micro-SIM it’s designed to replace, saving relatively little room inside the phone for other components.)

    Reply
31. May 10, 2012 at 8:54 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Asian mobile web traffic TRIPLED in past two years
    Region leads the world into a mobile future
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/05/10/web_traffic_asia_phone_mobile/

    The percentage of users accessing the web from their mobile device has almost tripled in Asia since 2010 and in some countries mobile web traffic now accounts for nearly half of all browsing, according to new research from site monitoring firm Pingdom.

    The firm analysed data from StatCounter to reveal that, from 2010 to May 2012, the mobile share of web traffic in Asia grew by over 192 per cent, from 6.1 per cent to 17.8 per cent.

    This figure far outstripped that of North America, which stood at 8 per cent by 2012, and Europe, which reached 5.1 per cent.

    Only Africa came close, reporting an increase of 155.6 per cent over the period to 14.9 per cent.

    “It’s worth noting that Europe scored a 183.43 per cen increase in mobile browsing share over this period, not that far behind Asia,” said Pingdom in a blog post.

    “But with the mobile share only increasing from 1.81 per cent to 5.13 per cent, Europe is still far behind both Africa and Asia when it comes to the percentage of users accessing the web using mobiles.”

    India in fact recorded the highest share of mobile traffic as a percentage of overall browsing at 48.9 per cent. The top ten was otherwise dominated by African nations, although Brunei (34.7 per cent) and Laos (35.5 per cent) also made the chart.

    India’s operators are still squabbling over the terms of a controversial 2G license auction, while China’s users have failed to take to 3G there due to poor quality of service and 4G is still a couple of years away.

    Reply
32. May 10, 2012 at 9:01 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Are Smart Phones Spreading Faster than Any Technology in Human History?
    http://www.technologyreview.com/business/40321/

    Mobile computers are on track to saturate markets in the U.S. and the developing world in record time.

    Today’s technology scene seems overheated to some. Apple is the most valuable company on earth. Software apps are reaching tens of millions of users within weeks. Major technology names like Research in Motion and Nokia are being undone by rapid changes to their markets. Underlying these developments: the unprecedented speed at which mobile computers are spreading.

    Those technologies with “last mile” problems—bringing electricity cables or telephone wire to individual homes—appear to spread more slowly. It took almost a century for landline phones to reach saturation, or the point at which new demand falls off. Mobile phones, by contrast, achieved saturation in just 20 years. Smart phones are on track to halve that rate yet again, and tablets could move still faster, setting consecutive records for speed to market saturation in the United States.

    Reply
33. May 10, 2012 at 11:18 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Protocols to Go
    http://www.fpgagurus.edn.com/blog/fpga-gurus-blog/protocols-go-0?cid=Newsletter+-+EDN+on+Embedded+Processing

    At the turn of the millennium, a specialized communication chip called a network processor (which slowly got replaced by FPGAs and ASSPs) spawned a more specialized co-processing chip usually known as a “TCP Offload Engine”, or TOE.

    The idea was to hardwire support for middle-layer communication protocols into silicon. Depending on how your hardware design was configured and whether the operating system supported TCP acceleration, the TOE worked pretty well.

    I kept waiting for TOEs and similar devices to be turned into FPGA IP cores (IP in this case referring to Intellectual Property – though since it was designed for TCP/IP, you might whimsically call it “IP for IP”). There were a few protocol-stack hardware offerings for Gigabit Ethernet and Interlaken designs, but it’s always been a bit hit-or-miss for embedding these kind of cores into FPGAs.

    Now, the IP core specialist PLDA Inc. has come up with what might be an optimal middleware core called QuickTCP

    All the major TCP-related protocols are supported, such as Address Resolution Protocol. If I was going to chide PLDA on one feature, it would be for the support of IPv4 alone. Many OEMs and network operators are switching to IPv6 these days. It is important not merely to upgrade to IPv6, but to offer dual-stack support for system designs that have to support IPv4 and IPv6 simultaneously. But that’s a minor quibble. I’m just happy to see some ready-to-roll communication protocols being embedded in FPGA cores. Let the games begin.

    Reply
34. May 10, 2012 at 11:50 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Introducing the App Center
    http://developers.facebook.com/blog/post/2012/05/09/introducing-the-app-center/

    Facebook is announcing the App Center, a new place for people to find social apps. The App Center gives developers an additional way to grow their apps and creates opportunities for more types of apps to be successful.

    The App Center is designed to grow mobile apps that use Facebook – whether they’re on iOS, Android or the mobile web. From the mobile App Center, users can browse apps that are compatible with their device, and if a mobile app requires installation, they will be sent to download the app from the App Store or Google Play.

    All developers should create an app detail page. The page is required for being listed in the App Center, and it will also become the new destination when non-users search for your app on Facebook.

    Many developers have been successful with in-app purchases, but to support more types of apps on Facebook.com, we will give developers the option to offer paid apps. This is a simple-to-implement payment feature that lets people pay a flat fee to use an app on Facebook.com.

    Facebook is getting its own app store for all devices, all platforms, all prices
    http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/09/facebook-app-center/#s:app-center-facebook

    Facebook is launching a new App Center, “a place to find social web, desktop, and mobile apps” — and not just Facebook apps.

    The App Center will bring Facebook’s 900 million users all the best in iOS apps, Android apps, web apps, mobile web apps, and even desktop apps. “The goal is to solve the app discovery problem… based on what you and your friends enjoy,” a Facebook rep told VentureBeat in a phone chat today.

    You won’t just find free apps here, either. Facebook is also introducing paid apps.

    Not only will Facebook’s App Center apps be personalized (as only Facebook, with its huge social graph, can personalize); it will also feature an iTunes App Store-like focus on quality. Each app will have star ratings gathered from users, and Facebook will also be collecting data on how often users come back to the app and how long they stay on it. Those scores will be combined to determine an application’s overall quality.

    The scoring data will also be viewable by app developers, who can then use the information to tweak and perfect their creations.

    App developers are today being asked to go to Facebook and create an “app detail” page with descriptions and screenshots, just like they’d do for Google Play or the iTunes App Store. Creating these pages is a requirement for being listed in the App Center.

    One of Facebook’s risk factors as stated in its IPO documents was a weakness in mobile technology. We’re sure this App Center is part of the company’s bid to show investors it does, in fact, “get” mobile.

    Facebook already has an app directory; however, it’s barely functional compared to what the company is rolling out today and does not include the ratings element or focus on quality.

    Facebook App Center: More showcase than store, actually
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57431426-93/facebook-app-center-more-showcase-than-store-actually/

    Or, how Facebook makes money and advances its own interest by helping Apple sell apps on its own store. It’s a surprisingly clever move.

    The app store model is winning the evolutionary battle for software businesses. It’s how operating system manufacturers are making ongoing money, especially on mobile devices. But now Facebook, which has a social networking platform and not an operating system of its own, has figured a way to take advantage of the model.

    The challenge, for a platform like Facebook, is that it has to build a store on top of these other existing stores. It is especially tricky to build on top of the Apple App store, which remains the only legitimate channel for users to get apps onto iOS devices. Facebook, instead of opening a store per se, has announced that it’s opening a hybrid marketplace: Part store, part showcase.

    Facebook will be selling (I use the term loosely) three things:

    1. Pointers to mobile apps on other stores. The App Center will list mobile apps for iOS and Android, but it won’t sell them. Rather, it will point users to complete their purchases on those stores. Facebook won’t make money from the sale of apps on other stores.

    2. Pointers to free Web apps that use Connect. Facebook will also be encouraging the growth of Facebook-connected services on the Web that use its login platform, like Pinterest and Spotify. Again, Facebook wins when users login in via Facebook.

    3. Actual paid Web apps. So what can Facebook actually sell to users on the site? Non-platform-specific apps, or HTML5 apps. Facebook will take the customary 30% fee for app sales

    Reply
35. May 10, 2012 at 3:43 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    The EU decided to: a price cap for data transmission

    10.05.2012 15:22 Mobile Surfing in the European Union go down in price since the beginning of July. The European Parliament today decided to set price caps for data transmission.

    Data transmission services price cap from the beginning of July is 0.7 euros per megabyte. Next year the price cap decreases to 0.45 euros and the following year in July by 0.2 euros. Today, operators are able to charge its customers in data transfers without any restrictions.

    Call prices cap is falling to 0.29 euros per minute in July 2012.
    And two years later price drops to EUR 0.19.

    Also In addition, in July 2014, customers can choose a non-national operator to arrange for roaming.

    Source: http://www.digitoday.fi/yhteiskunta/2012/05/10/eu-paatti-datasiirrolle-hintakatto/201229148/66?rss=6

    Reply
36. May 10, 2012 at 3:55 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    EU moves to slash mobile roaming charges
    http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2173798/eu-moves-slash-mobile-roaming-charges

    “Let me remind you what’s at stake. These days, mobiles are everywhere. People expect to use their phones wherever they go. Especially across internal borders that are supposed to have disappeared. And better smartphones, tablets and online content mean a boom in mobile data,” Kroes said.

    “In that context, high roaming charges are an irritant for citizens, and an obstacle to the Single Market. People are fed up with nasty surprises when they open their bill. Today we can put an end to them once and for all – for voice, for text, and for data. And show how the EU protects citizens’ interests.”

    Kroes continued, “People who want to browse abroad shouldn’t be held back by a fear of high charges. It’s a constraint on citizens, a constraint on businesses, and a constraint on economic growth. This agreement removes that constraint. By capping data charges, and by letting people choose their data roaming provider – perhaps just as easily as they’d choosing a Wifi network.”

    Reply
37. May 11, 2012 at 1:34 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Understanding OTT – Why Carriers dislike BBM, hate iMessage and fear Skype
    http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/understanding-ott-why-carriers-dislike-bbm-hate-imessage-and-fear-skype.html

    KPN was the first major telecoms operator to report a significant decline in its core SMS text messaging business, that drives more than half of the profits for most European mobile operators.

    OPERATOR ECONOMICS 101

    So lets look at the very basics of telecoms operator business. In 2011 the mobile industry earned 1.3 Trillion dollars. Most of that was not the costs of our handsets or other ‘hardware’ such as the telecoms networking infrastructure. Most of the business – 77% of it actually – was on the services side. Most of that 1.0 Trillion dollar service revenue pie, went to the telecoms operators. And of their income, 65% came from voice calls, and 19% came from messaging. So out of the total mobile telecoms revenue pie, 84% came from voice and messaging. That a large share for essentially just two services.

    But more important than revenues is profits. Roughly speaking 50% of global mobile operator profits came from voice calls, and 45% came from mobile messaging. So voice and messaging generted 84% of revenues, and 95% of profits for the mobile industry’s biggest players. Now you see? These are truly the ‘cash cows’ that keep the industry alive.

    A dramatic threat to either one of these two services would be a catastrophic menace to the very survival of the mobile operator involved. If anything were to actually jeopardize both voice and revenues – that would be the existential threat to the very industry.

    Now the rapid rise of iMessage or Whatsapp takes a brand new meaning. It is nice for us consumers to make calls on Skype but the revenue and profit drain is enormous.

    And messaging OTT (Over The Top business) provider have thus cannibalized about 10% of the total global revenues of SMS text messaging. How rapidly did this threat emerge and materialize? I count the start of mass-market OTT service in mobile from the year 2005, when Blackberry Messenger started to be adopted in many markets by the youth. So in the next 6 years the cannibalization of SMS revenues and profits has gone from zero to 10%. And if we project a standard S-curve to this number and the past 6 year growth pattern, we get the cannibalization level at about 20% by the end of this year 2012.

    The OTT market is still quite fragmented and there are many regional or local players.

    So if we want to consider the level of fear and loathing from the side of operators/carriers, then there are roughly four levels of threat

    First there are the small players and regional players. These are certainly a threat, and in some markets they can be a huge disruptive player.

    Secondly come the OS specific platforms, specifically currently Blackberry Messenger and iMessage.

    Third are the global cross-platform messaging companies, specifically currently Whatsapp. While the user number is still less than BBM or iMessage, Whatsapp has the threat to be on all smartphone platforms breaking past the barrier of one OS family.

    Fourth, and on the top with Over The Top, is one and only one: Skype. Skype has over 900 million users today, so just by virtue of being the biggest, it is the biggest threat. But where most OTT providers are single-service plays (mostly on messaging), Skype is a triple threat, doing voice calls, messaging and videocalls.

    Metcalfe’s Law is a law about communication networks. The law says that the utilty of any network increases in the square of the increase in its users. When you double the network use number, you increase the network utility to all users, not by double, but by quadruple (2 times 2, or in math terms, ’2 squared’ or 2 to the power of 2). So if your network user number grows by 3, the utility to all users grows by 3 x 3 = 9. This now gets interesting.

    You notice how this gets frightening really fast. If carriers/operators ‘disliked’ BBM and tried to stiffle its growth, they honestly fear iMessage and are doing all they can to prevent its growth. How then would they react to Skype? Pure terror might be an appropriate term for their spontaneous unprompted reaction, I would say.

    Now Microsoft is promising to integrate Skype into all their platforms, starting with Windows 8. Soon it will be on Xbox360 and on Windows Phone etc. Take you 900 million current active users, and add in 1 Billion Windows desktops.

    Thats just messaging. Messaging which delivers 19% of operator revenues and 45% of operator profits. Skype also kills voice calls where 65% of revenues and 50% of profits are today. And finally, Skype also destroys the future, because it cannibalizes consumer videocalls, something operators/carriers wanted to be a future revenue and profit stream in the 3G and LTE networks, using smartphones with the second, forward-facing cameras.

    So how is the carrier community reacting. Any operator can react to low cost or cheap or free voice or messaging provider, by the obvious marketing tool – cutting its own prices.
    So how is the carrier community reacting. Any operator can react to low cost or cheap or free voice or messaging provider, by the obvious marketing tool – cutting its own prices.

    Then the operators try to set up something similar. For Skype VOIP calls and various Skype clones like Vonage, the operators have already been deploying VOIP based discount call services, such as those used for international calls.

    And of course the operators also try to limit, cripple, shut down or charge extra for uses of those services, just like TeliaSonera in Sweden is now doing for Skype. Their (new) contract terms say their unlimited data plan explicitly excludes access to Skype and if Skype is used, those data charges will be above the standard all-you-can-eat package.

    Now we are approaching the point where operators are making those hard choices. The actual decisions depend very much on what is in their home market, what kind of smartphone platfroms are popular etc.

    Now the matters keep getting worse for Microsoft (and Nokia Lumia) as we just learned yesterday, that Nokia CEO had been telling the Nokia shareholders how dramatic world domination plans the Axis of Evil (Skype + Microsoft + Nokia) now have

    As I mentioned, MY PROJECTION says 20% of all messaging revenues is going through OTT within a year, doubling from what it is today.

    I am saying what the operators/carriers think, and they decide which handsets are in the stores and which are sold to their customers. Thus the carriers control this situation. And if Microsoft were, for example, to put a premium price Skype on Windows 8, where the calls are not free, then nobody would use that, they’d go to free alternatives, obviously.

    Reply
38. May 12, 2012 at 5:31 am

    Coralie Mimozo says:

    I like this web blog so much, saved to favorites. “Nostalgia isn’t what it used to be.” by Peter De Vries.

    Reply
39. May 12, 2012 at 2:35 pm

    Elease Rhett says:

    I like what you guys are up also. Such smart work and reporting! Keep up the superb works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it will improve the value of my website :).

    Reply
40. May 14, 2012 at 10:59 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    LightSquared Moves Toward Bankruptcy
    http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052702304192704577402003795263524-lMyQjAxMTAyMDEwMzExNDMyWj.html

    Hedge-fund manager Philip Falcone’s LightSquared Inc. venture was preparing Sunday to file for bankruptcy protection after negotiations with lenders to avoid a potential debt default faltered, said people familiar with the matter.

    Reply
41. May 14, 2012 at 11:11 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    HBO’s ‘Game Of Thrones’ On Track To Be Crowned Most Pirated Show Of 2012
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/05/09/hbos-game-of-thrones-on-track-to-be-crowned-most-pirated-show-of-2012/

    With its popularity swelling and no easy way to watch for viewers without cable, HBO’s hit series “Game of Thrones” is inspiring massive levels of piracy, according to numbers from the BitTorrent-tracking and analysis firm Big Champagne. By the firm’s rough estimate, the second season of the show has been downloaded more than 25 million times from public torrent trackers since it began in early April, and its piracy hit a new peak following April 30th’s episode, with more than 2.5 million downloads in a day.

    “It certainly appears to be the most pirated show of the year,”

    the second season of “Game of Thrones” so far consistently top “Dexter”‘s piracy numbers from the same point in its season last year.

    While “Game of Thrones”‘ filesharing rates are probably driven in part by its appeal to the young, geeky male demographic that’s most prone to using torrent sites, HBO hasn’t helped the problem by making the show tough to watch online for the young and cable-less. The show isn’t available through Hulu or Netflix, iTunes offers only Season 1, and using HBO’s own streaming site HBO Go requires a cable subscription.

    “This is absolutely a reaction to the show’s not being available elsewhere online,” says Big Champagne’s Robinson. “It’s a very tricky game trying to create this kind of scarcity.”

    Reply
42. May 14, 2012 at 11:52 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    The state of the internet
    http://www.techi.com/2012/05/the-state-of-the-internet/

    Not much needs to be said, here. We’re all on the internet.

    This infographic comes to us via Chicago Toyota and gives us an in-depth view of the current stats surrounding the network that keeps our lives going.

    Reply
43. May 15, 2012 at 11:02 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Nokia Outspent Apple Nine Times on R&D
    http://blogs.wsj.com/tech-europe/2012/05/14/nokia-outspent-apple-nine-times-on-rd/?mod=google_news_blog

    Between 2004 and 2007—the years leading to Apple’s first iPhone launch—Nokia’s total research and development spend was €17.1 billion ($22.2 billion at today’s exchange rate), against Apple’s $2.5 billion in the same period.

    So Nokia spent nine times more than Apple on R&D during those years.

    Between 2004 and 2011, Apple’s revenues increased roughly 1,200% while its net profit surged by 9,600%. Meanwhile, Nokia has turned into a loss-making device maker, with last year’s revenue just 31% higher since 2004.

    To this day Nokia continues to outspend Apple in that department, spending $7.3 billion last year against Apple’s $2.4 billion.

    Reply
44. May 15, 2012 at 11:16 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    LightSquared Files Bankruptcy After Network Blocked
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-14/lightsquared-failed-wireless-venture-files-for-bankruptcy.html

    LightSquared Inc. filed for bankruptcy, saying it will seek to resolve the concerns of U.S. regulators who thwarted the company’s plan to deliver high-speed wireless to as many as 260 million people.

    Bankruptcy “is intended to give LightSquared sufficient breathing room to continue working through the regulatory process that will allow us to build our 4G wireless network,” Chief Financial Officer Marc Montagner said in a statement. Reaching agreements with U.S. agencies may take as long as two years, he said in court papers.

    Yesterday’s bankruptcy filing wasn’t an “option the company embraced quickly or easily, but it was necessary to protect LightSquared against creditors who were looking for a quick profit,”

    Falcone’s plan for LightSquared depended on winning FCC approval to convert airwaves originally designated for satellite service to spectrum for land-based radio towers. LightSquared invested $4 billion in airwaves and reached deals with more than 30 partners, including Best Buy Co. (BBY)

    LightSquared hit a roadblock in February when the FCC said it would withdraw preliminary approval for the company’s network after government tests found that the signals would interfere with global-positioning systems.

    Reply
45. May 15, 2012 at 11:29 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Finland: Open WiFi Access Point Owner Not Liable For Infringement
    http://yro.slashdot.org/story/12/05/15/017249/finland-open-wifi-access-point-owner-not-liable-for-infringement

    “In Finland, the operator of an open WiFi access point was found not guilty for copyright infringement allegedly committed over said access point. The operation of such access points would have become legally risky were this decided otherwise.”

    Reply
46. May 15, 2012 at 2:12 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    HP Puts Wired And Wireless In The Wall
    http://www.techweekeurope.co.uk/news/news-it-infrastructure/hp-puts-wired-and-wireless-in-the-wall-1045

    New ProCurve device does all your networking from inside a wall socket

    HP ProCurve has combined a mini Wi-Fi access point with an Ethernet switch, and put it into a wall-socket for hotels and offices.

    The MSM317 Access Device is intended for hotels and meeting rooms, which are often provided with one Ethernet port, but have an increasing number of connected gadgets such as IP phone and TVs. It lets them upgrade to support new devices without expensive rewiring, by taking an 802.11b/g Wi-Fi access point and a four-port wired Ethernet switch, and putting them in a package that can replace standard Ethernet wall-plates.

    The unit is powered over Ethernet (PoE), and passes power on through one of the ports.

    The product is clearly a continuation of the Colubris product line which HP bought last year

    The strategy of moving wireless access points down from the ceiling into the wall can save a lot of effort and expense in installing access points, but has not been a big success when tried in the past. Aruba announced a similar concept, the Grid Point, which has not done well

    Reply
47. May 15, 2012 at 3:43 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    The biggest losers: Symbian, and RIM

    Android operating system has conquered more market share, Windows Phone platform has picked up thanks to Nokia.

    Apple managed to maintain its market position as number two smartphone

    Microsoft’s Windows Mobile operating system showed signs of strengthening of the heel strap.

    Symbian and BlackBerry are losers

    Source: Digitoday
    http://www.digitoday.fi/mobiili/2012/05/15/suurimmat-haviajat-symbian-ja-rim/201229432/66?rss=6

    Reply
48. May 16, 2012 at 9:57 am

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    802.11ac Wi-Fi: Benefits of a Revolutionary Technology Leap
    http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-blogs/other/4373016/802-11ac-Wi-Fi–Benefits-of-a-Revolutionary-Technology-Leap

    a recent Forrester study demonstrated that tablets are causing 1 in 5 owners to watch more video, and a Cisco study found that in 2011, average smartphone usage nearly tripled.

    With the new 802.11ac wireless networking standard that’s currently under development, we just might have our answer.

    This new standard, which is expected to achieve Wi-Fi certification as an IEEE amendment to 802.11n in the first quarter of 2013, expands coverage performance and offers video-grade throughput across increasingly crowded and busy networks. Representing the next evolution of wireless networking, 802.11ac is the first Wi-Fi standard to exceed Gigabit performance, offering key benefits for the home as well as large and small businesses.

    Among the 802.11ac standard’s benefits is its operation in the 5 GHz band, as opposed to 2.4 GHz (where 802.11n devices currently reside).

    In addition to offering less interference, the 5 GHz-based 802.11ac standard delivers wider bandwidth with capacity to achieve higher data rates, to better support the increasing throughput demands of advanced multimedia. The new standard adds 80 MHz and 160 MHz channels (whereas 802.11n only supports 20 MHz and 40 MHz).

    an 802.11ac station (STA) can receive up to eight spatial streams – effectively doubling the total network throughput. 802.11ac is also the first Wi-Fi standard to use multi-user MIMO (MU-MIMO), which can divide the eight spatial streams among up to four STAs.

    802.11ac products, which should reach the market in pre-certified devices later this year, will come for four different segments: mobile (smartphones), computing (notebooks and tablets), consumer electronics (TVs, gaming consoles, and DVRs), and home and enterprise networking (routers and access points).

    For the evolving home entertainment network, 802.11ac means smoother, in-home HD video content distribution through smart TVs, gaming consoles and streaming media players (Smart DMAs). It will enable devices to efficiently serve as connectivity hubs and larger displays for nearby mobile products such as smartphones and tablets. 802.11ac also takes subscription channels like Netflix, Hulu or Vudu and improves the playback quality (which is hindered by previous wireless connections lacking proper bandwidth), to any device throughout the house.

    Reply
49. May 18, 2012 at 4:45 pm

    youngevity says:

    youngevity…

    [...]Telecom trends for 2012 « Tomi Engdahl’s ePanorama blog[...]…

    Reply
50. May 21, 2012 at 2:03 pm

    Tomi Engdahl says:

    Cable companies expand free Wi-Fi
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57438006-93/cable-companies-expand-free-wi-fi/

    The nation’s largest cable operators are banding together to offer free Wi-Fi access to their broadband customers in more than 50,000 hotspots around the country.

    Five of the nation’s larges cable companies are partnering to allow their subscribers free access to each others’ Wi-Fi hotspots in cities across the U.S.

    On Monday, Bright House Networks, Cablevision, Comcast, Cox Communications, and Time Warner Cable announced on the first day of the Cable Show here that they’d enable each other’s broadband customers to access their metro Wi-Fi hotspots. The companies are calling the new network “CableWiFi,” so that subscribers will be able to find the hotspots when they’re roaming outside their own cable territory.

    The way it will work is that customers of any of these cable companies can look for the “CableWiFi” network and through a simple sign-on process connect using the same credentials as when accessing their own providers’ Wi-Fi networks. Once subscribers have signed on once to any of the “CableWiFi” networks, they will be able to automatically authenticate onto any other “CableWiFi” network, the companies said in a press release.

    But Wi-Fi isn’t the only wireless strategy that these companies have tried. These companies formed a joint venture several years ago to bid on wireless spectrum in the Federal Communications Commission’s Advanced Wireless Spectrum auction in 2006. The joint venture known as Spectrum Co. ended up buying more than 20 MHz of wireless spectrum. Cox Communications was the only company that ever tried to do something with the wireless spectrum.

    Some experts had hoped the cable companies would hold onto their spectrum and deploy a network, introducing another major wireless competitor in the market. But instead, the companies don’t want to own and operate their own networks. Instead, as part of the deal with Verizon, they will get to the option to resell Verizon’s cellular and wireless broadband service to their customers. So if the deal goes through, they will get their branded “quadruple play.”

    Reply