European alternatives

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1. April 1, 2025 at 3:30 pm

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   https://euro-stackletter.eu/

   EuroStack

   A European Industrial Policy initiative bringing together tech, governance and funding for Europe-focused investment to build and adopt a suite of digital infrastructures: from connectivity to cloud computing, AI and digital platforms.

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2. April 4, 2025 at 12:21 pm

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Foreign Affairs:
   Big Tech risks losing access to Europe by embracing Trump, pushing Europe to build its own companies and platforms and letting Chinese companies expand access

   The Brewing Transatlantic Tech War
   How Silicon Valley Got Entangled in Geopolitics—and Lost
   https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/brewing-transatlantic-tech-war

   arlos Barria / Reuters

   HENRY FARRELL is Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University.

   ABRAHAM NEWMAN is John Powers Chair in International Business Diplomacy at the Walsh School of Foreign Service and a Professor in the Department of Government at Georgetown University.

   They are the authors of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy.

   More by Henry Farrell
   More by Abraham Newman

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   Technology companies such as Alphabet, Meta, and OpenAI need to wake up to an unpleasant reality. By getting close to U.S. President Donald Trump, they risk losing access to one of their biggest markets: Europe.

   Just a decade ago, these companies believed that information technology would limit the power of governments and liberalize the world. But then, as globalization withered and the U.S. confrontation with China took hold, they tried to take advantage of growing geopolitical divides, enlisting on Washington’s side in the new technological cold war. Now, the new Trump administration appears less enthusiastic about fighting China than it is about subjugating U.S. allies in the European Union and elsewhere. U.S. tech companies extract billions of dollars in profits from European markets. Although many of these tech companies would love to take the EU regulatory state down a peg, they don’t want to get caught in the crossfire of an all-out EU-U.S. tech war.

   Unfortunately for Big Tech, such a war may be about to erupt. The Trump administration’s evident contempt for Europe may not only endanger the business interests of European companies. It could also spell the end of today’s open Internet, as Europeans look to build alternative platforms to those of the giant U.S. tech firms.

   As tech executives have embraced the new U.S. government, they have increasingly embroiled themselves in the brewing conflict between European regulators in Brussels and an executive in Washington acting with striking unilateralism. As a result, Europeans are starting to take a second look at their reliance on U.S. cloud, platform, and satellite providers. They increasingly see such dependence not just as a competitiveness issue but also as a critical strategic vulnerability that could be exploited against them. Most worrying for U.S. tech companies is that even if European politicians are reluctant to act, European judges, regulators, and activists may act in their stead and push to sever data flows between the United States and Europe.

   This is not the first time that a rift has opened between the United States and Europe on technology. A decade ago, the National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden revealed that the United States had been spying on European leaders, revelations that provoked EU threats to limit flows of personal data to the United States. Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president, explained in a 2019 book that the uproar around Snowden’s disclosures had created a lasting “chasm between governments and the tech sector.” When the European Court of Justice ruled in 2015 against an arrangement that allowed data on EU citizens to be sent to the United States, Eric Schmidt, then the executive chairman of Alphabet, lamented that the EU might break the global Internet, “one of the greatest achievements of humanity.”

   The global Internet will likely continue to exist in the form of shared technical infrastructure. But if U.S. companies persist in identifying with a U.S. administration that is hostile to Europe, it is likely that Europe will want its own companies and platforms to build technological fortifications against its former ally and protector. Chinese firms will try to expand in Europe, too, although they may also face greater public skepticism. Either way, the end result will be lower profits, weakened American innovation, and a more isolated and insecure United States.

   JELLO ON THE WALL

   Not too long ago, things weren’t so complicated. Silicon Valley’s business model seemed to go hand in hand with Washington’s geopolitical consensus. The U.S. government and U.S. tech companies agreed that the future lay in building a world that was safe for liberal politics and economics. The spread of the Internet and social media would inexorably undermine the power of autocratic governments. President Bill Clinton famously told China in 2000 that trying to control the Internet was like trying to nail Jello to the wall, and President George W. Bush funded the creation and spread of “liberation technology” that might nibble away at the foundations of dictatorship.

   U.S. tech firms could lose access to the European market.

   U.S. tech seemed well positioned for Trump’s return to power this year, even before the billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk became Trump’s universal plenipotentiary. Before last year’s election, influential figures such as Zuckerberg and the Amazon founder Jeff Bezos began cozying up to the new regime; Zuckerberg courted Trump in private phone calls and, over the summer of 2024, removed restrictions that had been placed on Trump’s Facebook and Instagram accounts, while Bezos scrapped a planned endorsement by The Washington Post—the paper he owns—of Trump’s rival, Kamala Harris. After Trump won, both Zuckerberg and Bezos made pilgrimages to visit the president-elect at his residence, Mar-a-Lago. Trump clearly relished their obeisance, commenting in December that “everyone wanted to be my friend.” For their part, many tech leaders were hopeful that Trump’s victory would be a boon for them; Trump seemed hawkish on China and willing to deregulate tech.

   TRANSATLANTIC DECOUPLING?

   Big Tech’s leaders certainly didn’t want to make an enemy of Trump and had some reason to believe that he might help them. Tech CEOs and owners, including Bezos, Schmidt’s successor Sundar Pichai, and Zuckerberg were willing to be displayed at Trump’s second inauguration like so many hunting trophies mounted on the wall.

   Unfortunately, none of them are really getting what they hoped for. To be sure, Trump’s second administration dislikes both domestic regulations and EU rules.

   And the Trump administration has evinced naked hostility to the EU, as evidenced by the private contempt for Europe expressed by Vice President JD Vance in leaked Signal messages. Rather than renegotiating the United States’ technology relationship with Europe on better terms, Trump’s demands that Europe back off from regulating U.S. tech companies (and that Denmark hand over Greenland) may lead Europeans to ask a question that U.S. tech firms don’t want them to ask: Is Europe’s reliance on American tech not just a competitiveness problem but a critical national security vulnerability?

   Even during Trump’s first term, many Europeans found such questions unthinkable. The United States had supported Europe for decades. Although Europeans resented the dominance of American Big Tech, they had never seen an alternative or even necessarily wanted one.

   Now, everyone in Europe can see the risks of relying on U.S. tech. The most obvious example is Starlink, the satellite communications firm owned by Musk. When the United States wanted to put pressure on Ukraine regarding possible negotiations to end the war with Russia, the White House suggested that it would deny access to Starlink, which provided the Ukrainian military with critical battlefield resources. Other European countries, now fearing that the United States might sell them out for temporary advantage, took note. They, too, depend on Starlink and other software, hardware, and technology for their daily operations. Europeans are moving away from Starlink as quickly as they can, with the European Commission investigating how it can support domestic alternatives. European car buyers, meanwhile, are turning away from Musk’s Tesla. Unfortunately for Silicon Valley, in the eyes of many Europeans, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft’s Azure business cloud services, and Facebook, too, all risk becoming damaged brands.

   It’s not just that technology might be turned off but that it might be used against European interests. Musk’s intervention on the side of far-right groups in Germany and the United Kingdom, attacking mainstream parties, has many European capitals on edge. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has taken the argument a step further, warning that “tech billionaires want to overthrow democracy.”

   BREAK THE INTERNET

   There is an even greater threat to U.S. tech companies that has gotten far less attention. In sharp contrast to today’s United States, the European Union has a strong commitment to the rule of law, obliging politicians to comply with judge’s rulings. The Trump administration’s scofflaw tendencies and tech companies’ increasing hostility toward European values may lead to the collapse of the EU-U.S. arrangements on which tech companies such as Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft depend.

   Schmidt worried a decade ago that an EU-U.S. data dispute might collapse the Internet. Snowden showed how U.S. intelligence agencies had illicitly accessed European social media and Internet search data, breaching European privacy rules. That dispute was patched over by an ungainly agreement, negotiated between the European Commission and the U.S. government. The EU agreed to allow data flows, as long as the United States committed to protecting the privacy rights of EU citizens and offered some means of redress if they were violated by U.S. surveillance agencies.

   This arrangement made nobody happy but provided legal and political cover for flows of data across the Atlantic. Meta continued to operate Facebook in Europe, and companies such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft were able to host Europeans’ personal data on their cloud-computing platforms. For those companies, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Google alone makes over $100 billion in sales in Europe.

   That arrangement is now on the verge of disintegrating, with the operations of U.S. tech companies in Europe in serious jeopardy. The Trump administration has not only fired most of the PCLOB’s members; it has also made clear in multiple ways that it will not comply with those legal rules that it finds inconvenient. The executive order is under review—but even if it formally stays on the books, no one trusts the Trump administration to abide by it.

   Everyone in Europe can see the risks of relying on U.S. tech.

   This time, there will be no plausible agreement between the two regimes. European judges and national privacy regulators will be extremely skeptical of promises from the Trump administration, and rightly so. European judges are not subject to the same political pressures as European politicians or European Commission officials. They see themselves as the guardians of national laws and a European constitutional order, which Trump and his officials want to undermine.

   Google and Microsoft currently control two-thirds of the European market for cloud computing. But European politicians, academics, think tanks, and entrepreneurs are already converging on the notion that Europe needs to build its own cloud resources to gain the strategic autonomy that it needs to wean itself from U.S. technology. A European court ruling against EU-U.S. data flows would dramatically accelerate these plans. So, too, could sweeping U.S. trade tariffs, which Europe might respond to by restricting U.S. technology services.

   If that happens, Big Tech will have no one to blame but itself. Its response to geopolitical changes has been to build a closer relationship with the U.S. government, anticipating that it could continue to thrive in a world of U.S.-Chinese rivalry. Tech leaders willingly embraced Trump after his reelection, when they could have kept their distance. Big Tech companies may be about to discover that not only are they never going to have access to the Chinese market but they are increasingly persona non grata in European markets, too.

   These fraying ties may mark the end of the dream of a global Internet, in which everyone shares the same services. Just as in China, European platforms may continue to use the Internet as the technological foundation for their services. But they will begin to construct their own alternative platforms on top, walled away from U.S. interference through Europe-only business models and strong encryption. This will not just lower U.S. profits; it will further damage the transatlantic security relationship. Schmidt’s prophecy may come true a decade later than he expected, and U.S. tech companies will have been complicit in bringing it to fruition.

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3. April 4, 2025 at 12:23 pm

   Tomi Engdahl says:

   Euractiv:
   France says the EU’s second response to President Trump’s tariffs will cover digital services, like those provided by Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft

   https://www.euractiv.com/section/tech/news/france-singles-out-digital-services-for-eus-tariff-response/

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